Meeting of the American Statistical Association (ASA)

Committee on Energy Statistics

With the

Energy Information Administration (EIA)

October 20 and 21, 2005

Washington, D.C.

Note: All sessions are in Room 8E-089 unless otherwise posted in the break-out box.

Thursday, October 20, 2005

8:30 a.m. Open Meeting, Nicolas Hengartner, Chair, ASA Committee on Energy Statistics

8:35 a.m. Greetings and Remarks, Guy Caruso, Administrator, Energy Information Administration, EIA, and Recognize Retiring ASA Committee Members: Mark Bernstein and Randy Sitter

9:00 a.m. Updates for the Committee:

- Since the Spring 2005 Meeting, Nancy Kirkendall, Director, Statistics and Methods Group (SMG), EIA

- Results of Simulation Study for the EIA-914, Preston McDowney, SMG

- EIA’s Regional Short-Term Energy Outlook, Margot Anderson, Director, Energy Markets and End Use (EMEU), EIA

9:30 a.m. Short-Term Forecasting Performance Measures: Accuracy Evaluation, Margot Anderson, EMEU, EIA

9:55 a.m. ASA Discussant: Moshe Feder

10:05 a.m. ASA Discussant: Tom Rutherford

10:15 a.m. Committee Discussion

10:25 a.m. Break

10:40 a.m. Move directly to Break-Out Sessions:

10:40 a.m. Move directly to Break-Out Sessions:

Room 8E-089	Room 5E-069 (Fifth floor)
Vehicle Energy Use: What We Did and What It Tells Us Mark Schipper, EMEU, EIA ASA: M. Bernstein, J. Blair, M. Burton, M. Feder, T. Rutherford, S. Sereika and R. Sitter	Preserving EIA Trustworthy Datasets, Model Documentation and Contextual History, John Paul Deley, National Energy Information Center, EIA ASA: C. Cleveland, J. Edmonds, N. Hengartner, W. Hill, B. Forsyth, N. Neerchal and D. Singpurwalla

11:55 a.m. Report out: Vehicle Energy Use: What We Did and What It Tells Us

ASA Discussant: Susan Sereika

12:05 p .m. Report out: Preserving EIA Trustworthy Datasets, Model Documentation and Contextual History: ASA Discussant: Walter Hill

12:15 p.m. Additional Committee Discussion

12:20 p.m. Invitation for Public Comments, Nicolas Hengartner, Chair, ASA

12:25 p.m. Lunch for the Committee members and invited guests, Room 1E-226

1:25 p.m. Learning from the Past: Updating Data Quality Efforts, Renee Miller, SMG, EIA

1:50 p.m. ASA Discussant: Mark Bernstein

2:00 p.m. ASA Discussant: Randy Sitter

2:10 p.m. Additional Committee Discussion

2:20 p.m. Can Discrepant Estimates Be a Good Thing? Renee Miller, SMG, EIA

Lead Discussant: Jae Edmonds

2:30 p.m. Committee Discussion: Lead: Nick Hengartner

3:20 p.m. Break

3:35 p.m. Survey Self Assessments, Tom Broene, SMG, EIA

4:00 p.m. ASA Discussant: Johnny Blair

4:10 p.m. ASA Discussant: Barbara Forsyth

4:20 p.m. Additional Committee Discussion

4: 30 p.m. Invitation for Public Comments

4:35 p.m. Adjourn the Thursday meeting, Nicolas Hengartner, ASA Chair

Friday, October 21, 2005

8:30 a.m. Open Meeting, Nicolas Hengartner, ASA Chair

8:35 a.m. Data Errors, Structural Change and Time Series Shocks in the Electricity Market, Lindolfo Pedraza, author, and Joel Douglas, presenter, SAIC, EIA Contractors

9:00 a.m. ASA Discussant: Mark Burton

9:10a.m. ASA Discussant: Nagaraj Neerchal

9:20 a.m. Additional Committee Discussion

9:30 a.m. Move to Break-Out Sessions

9:30 a.m. Break -Out Sessions:

9:30 a.m. Break -Out Sessions:

Room 8E-089	Room 5E-069 (Fifth floor)
Frames Comparisons of the EIA-3 and EIA-860 with the Manufacturing Sector of the 2002 Economic Census and the 2002 Manufacturing Energy Consumption Survey, Vicki Haitot and Rick Hough, U.S. Census Bureau ASA: J. Blair, M. Feder, B. Forsyth, W. Hill, N. Neerchal, R. Sitter and D. Singpurwalla	The Relationships Between Various Price Series: Are Futures Contracts Prices Good Predictors of Future Spot Prices? Bill Trapmann and Lejla Alic, OOG, EIA ASA: M. Bernstein, M. Burton, C. Cleveland, J. Edmonds, N. Hengartner, S. Sereika and T. Rutherford

10:40 a.m. Break

11:00a.m. Return to 8E-089 and report out on:

11:00 a.m. Frames Comparisons of the EIA-3 and EIA-860 with the Manufacturing Sector of the 2002 Economic Census and the 2002 Manufacturing Energy Consumption Survey

ASA Discussant: Darius Singpurwalla

11:10 a.m. The Relationships Between Various Price Series: Are Futures Contracts Prices Good Predictors of Future Spot Prices?

ASA Discussant: Cutler Cleveland

11:20 a.m. Additional Committee discussion

11:30 a.m. Invitation for Public Comments

11:35 a.m. Committee Suggestions for topics at the spring 2006 meeting

12: 05 p.m. Adjourn the ASA fall 2005 meeting with EIA, Nicolas Hengartner, ASA Committee Chair