Meeting of the American Statistical Association (ASA) Committee on Energy Statistics

with the

Energy Information Administration (EIA)

April 22-23, 2004

Washington, D.C.

 

Thursday, April 22, 2004

 

 8:30 a.m.         Open Meeting, Jay Breidt, Chair, ASA Committee on Energy Statistics

 

 8:35 a.m.         Greetings and Remarks, Guy Caruso, Administrator, Energy Information Administration (EIA)

 

8:55 a.m.         Updates for the Committee Since the Fall, 2003, Meeting, Nancy Kirkendall, Director,

Statistics and Methods Group (SMG), EIA

 

 9:05 a.m.         An Introduction to EIA’s Short-Term Forecasting, Howard Gruenspecht, Deputy Administrator, EIA

 

 9:10 a.m.         Background on EIA’s Short-Term Forecasting, David Costello, Energy Markets and End Use, EIA

 

 9:20 a.m.         Move to Break-Out Sessions:

 

Room 8E-089

Room 5E-069

Issues in Short-Term Energy Modeling: Adding Regional Components to EIA’s Short-Term Energy Model  Phillip Tseng, SMG, and David Costello, EMEU, EIA

 

ASA:  Mark Bernstein, Neha Khanna, Nicolas Hengartner, Nagaraj Neerchal and Susan Sereika

Measuring the Quality of EIA Analysis: A Revised Approach, Bill Weinig, SMG, EIA

 

ASA:  Jay Breidt, Mark Burton, Moshe Feder, Barb Forsyth and Randy Sitter

 

10:25 a.m.        Break

 

10:40 a.m.        ASA Committee members to summarize their recommendations on:

 

                           Issues in Short-Term Energy Modeling: Adding Regional Components to EIA’s Short-Term Energy Model 

 

                           ASA Summary:  Mark Bernstein

 

Measuring the Quality of EIA Analysis: A Revised Approach

 

ASA Summary:  Mark Burton

 

10:55 a.m.        Move to Break-Out Sessions:

 

Room 8E-089

Room 5E-069

Natural Gas Prices and Industrial Sector Responses: An Experimental Module for the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS), David Costello, EMEU, EIA, and Fred Joutz, George Washington University

 

ASA:  Mark Bernstein, Mark Burton, Neha Khanna and Susan Sereika

EIA’s Frames:  How Do We Know if They Are Sufficient? Grace Sutherland, with  participation from Renee Miller, Howard Bradsher-Fredrick, Shawna Waugh and Alethea Jennings, SMG, EIA

 

ASA:  Jay Breidt, Moshe Feder, Barbara Forsyth, Nicolas Hengartner and Randy Sitter

 

12:00 p.m.        ASA Committee members to summarize their recommendations on:

 

                           Natural Gas Prices and Industrial Sector Responses: An Experimental Module for the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS)

 

                           ASA Summary:  Neha Khanna

 

EIA’s Frames:  How Do We Know if They Are Sufficient?

 

ASA Summary:  Moshe Feder

 

12:10 p.m.        Invite public questions and comments, Jay Breidt, Chair, ASA

 

12:15 p.m.        Lunch for the Committee members and invited guests, Room 1E-226

 

 1:15 p.m.         Electricity Transmission:

 

 1:15 p.m.         Electricity Transmission Data Needs Focus Group Results, Howard Bradsher-Fredrick and Phillip Tseng, SMG, EIA

 

 1:40 p.m.         Electricity 2005, Robert Schnapp, Office of Coal, Nuclear, Electric and Alternate Fuels, EIA  

 

 2:05 p.m.         Transmission Data for Public Policy, Douglas R. Hale, Senior Scientist, SMG, EIA (Time for Committee questions)

 

 2:15 p.m.         Begin Break-Out Sessions:

 

Room 8E-089

Room 5E-069

Estimating Weekly Other Oils Stock,  Ruey-Pyng Lu, SMG, EIA

 

ASA:  Mark Bernstein, Mark Burton, Neha Khanna, Nagaraj Neerchal and Susan Sereika

EIA Survey Testing Methods, Stanley Freedman and Robert Rutchik, SMG, EIA

 

ASA:  Jay Breidt, Moshe Feder, Barbara Forsyth, Nicolas Hengartner and Randy Sitter

 

  3:15 p.m.       Break

 

  3:30 p.m.       ASA Committee members to summarize their recommendations on:

 

                                         Estimating Weekly Other Oils Stock

 

                                         ASA Summary:   Nagaraj Neerchal

 

                                         EIA Survey Testing Methods

 

                                         ASA Summary:  Jay Breidt

 

3:45 p.m.          Natural Gas Production Monthly Survey, Inder Kundra, SMG, EIA

 

4:45 p.m.          Invitation for Public Comments

 

4:50 p.m.          Adjourn the Thursday meeting, Jay Breidt, ASA Chair

 

 

Friday, April 23, 2004

 

 8:30 a.m.         Open Meeting, Jay Breidt, ASA Chair

 

 8:40 a.m.         Improving EIA’s Website: Creating a Vision for the Future, Colleen Blessing, National Energy Information Center and Melinda Hobbs,                               Office of Information Technology, EIA.

 

 8:55 a.m.         Committee comments and questions

 

 9:15 a.m.         Move to Break-Out Sessions:

 

Room 8E-089

Room 5E-069

Revising Data Together Across EIA: Issues and Opportunities, Renee Miller and Alethea Jennings, SMG, EIA

 

ASA:  Jay Breidt, Mark Burton, Moshe Feder,  Nagaraj Neerchal and Randy Sitter

Survey Quality Assessments at EIA, Tom Broene, SMG, EIA

 

ASA:  Mark Bernstein, Barbara Forsyth, Nick Hengartner, Neha Khanna Susan Sereika

 

10:20 a.m.        ASA Committee members to summarize their recommendations on:

 

                                         Revising Data Together Across EIA: Issues and Opportunities

 

                                         ASA Summary:  Randy Sitter

 

                                         Survey Quality Assessments at EIA

 

                                         ASA Summary:  Nicolas Hengartner

 

10:35 a.m.        Invitation for Public Comments

 

10:45 a.m.        Break

 

11:00 a.m.        Committee Suggestions for the fall 2004 meeting

 

11:30 a.m.        Adjourn the ASA spring meeting with EIA, Jay Breidt, ASA Committee Chair