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1	NASEO 2010 Winter Fuels Outlook Conference October 13, 2010 Washington, DC Richard Newell, Administrator U.S. Energy Information Administration
2	Overview EIA expects average heating bills to be 3% higher this winter than last an increase of $24 to a U.S. average of $986 per household Due to higher fuel prices forecast this winter compared to last 2% higher electricity prices 8% higher heating oil prices 6% higher residential natural gas prices 11% higher propane prices Bill increases are moderated by a warmer winter weather forecast for the South, but little change in the Midwest/West; slightly colder in the Northeast Inventories of fuel oil and natural gas are currently well above typical levels, which helps dampen price increases if winter is colder than expected in contrast, propane stocks are low in the New England region
3	U.S. households forecast to spend an average of 3% ($24) more on heating bills this winter (October 1– March 31)
4	Winter 2010-11 heating season forecast is 3% warmer than last winter, and 1% warmer than 30-year average
5	Higher natural gas heating bills for some regions this winter
6	EIA expects residential natural gas prices to be 6% higher this winter than last
7	Future natural gas prices remain uncertain
8	Less than 10% chance of natural gas price being higher than $5.50 per MMBtu for January 2011 contract month
9	Natural gas inventories are close to last year’s record-high levels
10	Winter electricity bill forecast shows little change from last winter
11	Winter heating oil bills are likely to be higher in most regions
12	U.S. heating oil retail price forecast to average 23 cents per gallon higher than last winter
13	Uncertainty over future heating oil prices is driven primarily by crude oil prices
14	Less than 10% chance of wholesale heating oil price being higher than $2.75 per gallon for January 2011 contract month
15	Going into winter, distillate inventories are well above the upper end of the normal range
16	Higher expected propane fuel bills in most regions
17	EIA forecasts residential propane prices will average $2.42 per gallon, 24¢ per gallon higher than last winter
18	Propane inventories are near the middle of the normal range
19	For more information