|SLooking more closely at 2008 and then 2009, we see that
exports began to grow from Latin American needs during the first half of the
year, but spiked in June, July and August as a result of both Latin American
needs and demand from Europe.
|S With the hurricanes in September 2008, exports fell back,
but resumed again when refiners recovered.†
By November and December, exports were back up, with about 60% moving
|SIn 2009, exports have remained relatively strong, even
though high margin opportunities are diminished.† Latin American growth as well as high
exports to Europe have continued.
|SHow are U.S. refiners doing this?† With operational yield shifts, as described
earlier.† And keep in mind that the
2008 yield shift was not all that U.S. refiners can do.† Not all†
individual refiners shifted as far as them might be able to do if the
incentives are there.† If we donít have
an unusually strong demand rebound following the recession, U.S. refiners
should be able to continue to meet shifting U.S. demand and take advantage of
international opportunities with distillate exports.
|SDistillate may well provide more profit opportunities for
some time in the Atlantic Basin than gasoline due to declining demand for
crude based gasoline and increased supply availability as that demand
declines Ė which brings us to Europe and its growing supply of gasoline for