Significant Shift in Trends
from 2007 Outlook to 2009 Outlook
projected to ease in the long
term with new supply
petroleum growth projected to
continue; need for more refining
•But outlook from 2009
is dramatically different;
are about double those seen
•Policy changes another
SThe outlook for petroleum demand has changed dramatically
in the past few years.At the
beginning of 2007, the EIA outlook showed strong demand growth and the need
for new refining capacity.Prices were
lower in this forecast.
SThe current forecast has higher prices and higher
efficiencies affecting demand.It also
has the recession, which has a slowing effect on demand for some time.
SEven if there is more rebound after the recession than
currently forecast, it is not likely we will see the kind of growth forecast
in early 2007.