Notes

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Outline

1	DOE/NASEO 2007/08 Winter Fuels Outlook Conference October 9, 2007 Washington, DC
2	U.S. average fuel expenditures are expected to be higher for all fuels this winter (October – March).
3	Winter 2007-08 is expected to be 4 % colder than 2006-07, but still 2 % warmer than 30-year average.
4	Natural gas prices are expected to be higher than last winter.
5	U.S. natural gas in storage is projected to remain above historical averages.
6	Natural gas heating bills are projected to be higher for all regions this winter.
7	Crude oil prices, having recently exceeded $80 per barrel, are projected to decline slowly over the forecast.
8	Multiple and hard-to-predict uncertainties drive the oil market forecast
9	Retail gasoline prices are projected to be higher in 2008.
10	Retail heating oil prices are projected to average about 40 cents per gallon higher than last winter.
11	U.S. winter heating oil expenditures projected to increase for all regions.
12	Residential propane prices are expected to average about 23 cents per gallon higher than last winter.
13	Propane inventories are low.
14	Propane expenditures are projected to increase in all regions.
15	Winter electricity expenditure increases are expected to be smaller than other fuels.
16	Wrap up: On average, U.S. households will pay about $88 (10%) more for heating this winter. Higher expenditures are driven by higher unit prices and weather-related increases in consumption. Under the baseline forecast, natural gas expenditures could be about $78 (10%) higher for the average U.S. household this winter. Heating oil expenditures are projected to be about $319 (22%) higher for the average U.S. household this winter. Electricity expenditures are forecasted to be $32 (4%) higher the average U.S. household this winter. A colder winter would raise estimated expenditures somewhat from those of the base case weather scenario.