NPRA 2007 Annual Meeting
Supply: Refinery-Based Gasoline Grew At Slower Rate than Middle Distillates
Refinery Outputs from Crude & Other
Refinery Outputs from Crude
Net Imports
Oxygenates
Note: Crude & Other includes refinery-produced oxygenates; Net Imports for gasoline includes blending component imports; Oxygenates excludes refinery produced oxygenates. Middle distillates are jet and distillate.                                                              Source: Forms EIA-810 and -819.
SNow we turn to U.S. supply, which has larger implications for refiners than demand shifts.  These graphs show gasoline and distillate supply from 1995 through 2006.

SNot only has demand growth been higher for distillate than for gasoline, but comparison of the refinery output of distillate with gasoline output from crude oil and other feeds shows an even greater growth disparity.  From 1995 to 2006, U.S. refinery-based gasoline supply increased about 500 thousand barrels per day, while refinery-based middle distillates increased about 950 thousand barrels per day.

SImports and oxygenate growth from outside the refinery supplied most of the gasoline demand growth.
–Gasoline net imports have grown substantially in recent years, partially due to the increasing availability of imports from Europe. From 1995 through 2005, total gasoline net imports (finished and blending components) have grown from 202 thousand barrels per day to 955 thousand barrels per day, supplying 55% of the demand growth over that time.
–Oxygenates have also become an increasingly important part of the gasoline supply, first with MTBE and now with ethanol.

SDistillate demand growth was supplied mainly from increased U.S. refinery production.
–Distillate product imports grew somewhat, but not as much as gasoline imports and not as much as distillate production.  We currently see a relatively steady flow of distillate imports from Canada and the Virgin Islands, accompanied by winter surges in heating oil when the weather gets quite cold.

SWhat do we see regarding these trends in the future?