|SNow we turn to U.S. supply, which has larger implications
for refiners than demand shifts. These
graphs show gasoline and distillate supply from 1995 through 2006.
|SNot only has demand growth been higher for distillate than
for gasoline, but comparison of the refinery output of distillate with
gasoline output from crude oil and other feeds shows an even greater growth
disparity. From 1995 to 2006, U.S.
refinery-based gasoline supply increased about 500 thousand barrels per day,
while refinery-based middle distillates increased about 950 thousand barrels
|SImports and oxygenate growth from outside the refinery
supplied most of the gasoline demand growth.
|–Gasoline net imports have grown substantially in recent years,
partially due to the increasing availability of imports from Europe. From
1995 through 2005, total gasoline net imports (finished and blending
components) have grown from 202 thousand barrels per day to 955 thousand
barrels per day, supplying 55% of the demand growth over that time.
|–Oxygenates have also become an increasingly important part of the
gasoline supply, first with MTBE and now with ethanol.
|SDistillate demand growth was supplied mainly from increased
U.S. refinery production.
|–Distillate product imports grew somewhat, but not as much as gasoline
imports and not as much as distillate production. We currently see a relatively steady flow
of distillate imports from Canada and the Virgin Islands, accompanied by
winter surges in heating oil when the weather gets quite cold.
|SWhat do we see regarding these trends in the future?