|SThis plot shows our latest estimates of the
loss of crude input to the Gulf Coast refineries that were shutdown because
of hurricanes Rita and Katrina. The refinery crude input levels were based on
historic fall levels for each refinery when its operations were not affected
by maintenance activity.
|SThe peak week is the week ending September 30th,
with over 4 million barrels per day of crude input lost. Actual crude input was 11.7 million barrels
per day compared to a level that would have been about 15.8 million barrels
|SThe result of the low crude input was a drop
in gasoline stocks of 4.4 million barrels and in distillate stocks of 5.6
million barrels for the week ending September 30..
|SDespite the fact that gasoline production is
normally twice that of distillate, the stock drop was greater for distillate
than gasoline. This was because gasoline supply was increased to a much
greater extent by increased imports, the beneficial impacts of waivers, and
the yield shifts from distillate and jet to gasoline.
|SFor the months of September and October, the
average estimated lost crude input is 2 million barrels per day. The
associated lost product production will have to be made up from increased
imports, reduced demand, increased yields (helped by waivers), deferred
refinery maintenance, and a draw down of inventories.