Pre Katrina: 2005 Distillate Not Flowing In or Out of U.S. in Unusual Amounts
SThe last slide’s estimates of distillate inventories include estimates for imports and demand. We have yet to see much increase in distillate imports in EIA’s weekly data, and very few refiners have indicated to us that they planned for increased distillate imports.  This is partially because the shortfall so far is in low sulfur diesel rather than heating oil.  However, we are still early into the hurricane recovery period, and changes could occur. But  at this point our estimates for supply include only small increases in net distillate imports.

SLooking back before  the hurricanes when distillate prices were hovering well above gasoline prices in Europe and elsewhere during 2005, speculations arose whether those prices might draw distillate away from the U.S. While that didn’t happen, the U.S did see relatively greater price strength for distillate products versus gasoline.

SExports, while larger than last year over this time period, have not been unusually large, and Latin America remains the primary export destination.