|SThe last slide’s estimates of distillate
inventories include estimates for imports and demand. We have yet to see much
increase in distillate imports in EIA’s weekly data, and very few refiners
have indicated to us that they planned for increased distillate imports. This is partially because the shortfall so
far is in low sulfur diesel rather than heating oil. However, we are still early into the
hurricane recovery period, and changes could occur. But at this point our estimates for supply
include only small increases in net distillate imports.
|SLooking back before the hurricanes when distillate prices were
hovering well above gasoline prices in Europe and elsewhere during 2005,
speculations arose whether those prices might draw distillate away from the
U.S. While that didn’t happen, the U.S did see relatively greater price
strength for distillate products versus gasoline.
|SExports, while larger than last year over this
time period, have not been unusually large, and Latin America remains the
primary export destination.