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SOne of the problems seems to come from a
comparison of world product demand and world refinery capacity. A balance of 83 MMB/D of capacity against 82 MMB/D of
demand implies a very tight situation.
But one needs to look more closely.
For example, the U.S. has over 20 MMB/D of demand and only 16.0 MMB/D of refinery inputs plus 1.4 MMB/D of
product imports. Gas liquids and other
hydrocarbons and oxygenates contribute significant supply volumes.
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SIt is necessary to look at regional refinery
markets in order to get a meaningful
picture of how high capacity
utilization is.
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SHowever, while our view is more restrained than some other analysts
that state that world capacity is “maxing out”, it is correct that demand is
growing faster than capacity in recent years, and the situation will become
tighter if high demand growth continues.
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