EU-15 Demand Mix May Imply Excess European Mogas Supply
Source: History IEA; Forecast Purvin & Gertz
SEurope, as a gasoline import source, merits addition explanation. The United States has benefited from Europe’s dieselization program historically.  As Europe’s dieselization program evolved, demand for diesel fuel grew faster than gasoline, and Europe’s refineries produced more gasoline than the region could use.  This provided an economic source of supply for the United States

SEuropean diesel demand overtook gasoline demand after 1995, and is expected by many forecasters to continue to outstrip gasoline – even to the extent that gasoline demand might decline.

SThis forecast shows the ratio of gasoline to diesel halving between 1990 and 2015, which has significant impacts for refiners.

SAlso note that the forecast is based on a continuation of the change in vehicles in Europe that has occurred historically.