2004 World Demand Surprisingly Strong
Recent Growth
Source: History – EIA; Forecast Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2004
SBut in 2004, demand is projected to increase by about 2.5 MMB/D or over 3%.

SThis was a surprise to almost everyone – suppliers  and consumers.

SPart of the reason for the surprise is that a very large part of the growth came from China – an area about which we really know very little.  China’s petroleum demand increased almost 1 MMB/D.  (The U.S. was 0.4 MMB/D.)

SChina’s growth is expected to slow, but as we look ahead, world growth is expected to remain relatively strong at about 2 MMB/D next year.

SIn summary, two demand features stand out relative to the crude oil  price  increase this  year: surprise and very strong growth.