|SWhat about future import volumes? In both the case of sulfur reductions and
MTBE bans, Western European volumes have been an important source of
products. Will Europe be able to
continue to supply increasing volumes?
|SLooking back, the United States has benefited
from Europe’s dieselization program.
As Europe’s dieselization program evolved, demand for diesel fuel grew
faster than gasoline, and Europe’s refineries produced more gasoline than the
region could use. This provided an
economic source of supply for the United States
|SEuropean diesel demand overtook gasoline
demand after 1995, and is expected by many forecasters to continue to
outstrip gasoline – even to the extent that gasoline demand might continue to
decline for some time.
|SThis forecast shows the ratio of gasoline to
diesel halving between 1990 and 2015, which has significant impacts for
refiners, and is based on a continuation of the change in vehicles in Europe
that has occurred historically.
|SThis implies more import volumes may be
available from Europe as our demand increases, but will it be enough to both
make up for lost suppliers as well as demand growth? We really don’t know that answer to that
question, but we have some reassurance that we may very well see some level
of increasing volume availability..