SMost “reference case” or “business as usual” forecasts today show petroleum demand in the United States continuing to grow over the next 25 years or so, being driven by transportation fuels.
	SEIA’s reference case shows petroleum demand for transportation fuels reaching a level in 2025 that is more than 50% greater than petroleum transportation demand today.  An additional 7 million barrels per day will need to be supplied, which argues for more capacity.
	SWe know factors can change this outlook.  I would venture to say that a significant slowing in demand growth or a significant shift in the mix between diesel and gasoline could have tremendous impacts on the shape of the refining industry in the future.
	SBut do such scenarios merit consideration?  History can provide some insights.  For example, in the early 1980’s, high prices, a recession, and improved vehicle fuel efficiencies acted to reduce demand.
	SThe next slides consider the impact fuel efficiencies alone can have.