Issues for Petroleum Market
This year may bring continued volatility
- Lean stocks likely to continue
- Little excess U.S. gasoline production capacity
What about longer term?
- Imports were relief valve historically, but demand, capacity, and spec changes here and abroad may affect import availability
- Future spec transitions in gasoline and diesel could result in temporary supply problems
Notes:
- What I have discussed so far suggests the potential for another year of volatility in the short term, stemming from a tight petroleum balance, lean stocks and, for gasoline, little excess production capacity.
- But what about the longer term?
- Longer term, factors are at work that indicate the potential for more volatility down the road. While imports have been a relief valve historically, product specification changes both in the U.S. and abroad may impact that availability. It already has impacted the quickness with which export countries can respond to “unexpected opportunities” in the U.S.
- The changes in specification for gasoline and diesel within the US raise questions about short-term supply problems beyond those that we have seen historically as well.
- These are issues that we all will be facing and working on over the next few years.