Gasoline Price Volatility Is a Concern This Summer
Notes:
- With winter almost over, most people are focusing on gasoline and the outlook for this summer.
- Last year, it seemed like we had just gotten over the distillate price spike when gasoline prices began to rise sharply. Last summer’s low stocks and transition to Phase 2 RFG added price pressure over and above the already high crude price pressure on gasoline -- particularly in the Midwest.
- As we ended last winter, gasoline inventories were low, and the spread between spot prices and crude oil were higher than typical as a result. The average spread for February 2000 was about 11cents per gallon. Inventories did not recover and the spread remained higher than average through most of the summer.
- In November and December, as gasoline demand eased, prices relaxed and spreads returned to average levels -- only to rebound again in January and February as refineries began to undergo maintenance and the market watched the already low stock cushion erode further. In January, spreads averaged 16 cents compared to less than 5 cents in January 2000. This past February, spreads are slightly higher than last year -- averaging 12 cents. This is about 5 cents over what we would typically see this time of year.