Product Price Volatility-This Year and in the Future
Crude Oil -- Continued tight balance leaves world on thin edge
Distillate Winter Price Retrospective – Why a price spike last winter and not this winter?
Gasoline Price Volatility – Again this summer?
Longer Term EIA Concerns– Volatility, imports, and specification changes
- Product import availability
- Ultra low sulfur diesel
Notes:
- Price volatility has been an issue for some time now, and is likely to be in the future, as EIA’s short term outlook will highlight.
- The crude oil markets are at the root of our current situation. Tight crude oil markets led to tight product markets, and EIA is not expecting the world petroleum balance to change soon.
- Before looking at the gasoline outlook, this past winter provides us with an interesting illustration of factors that both lead to price spikes and those that help to prevent them. In spite of an environment ripe for price surges, we did not have any price spike like the one we saw in January/February 2000.
- Leaving winter behind, I will next cover the gasoline market outlook. This season is unfolding with signs that we could again see some price volatility.
- Then I will conclude by mentioning several issues of interest to EIA that deal with price volatility further down the road in time -- between now and about 2007. One focuses on the availability of product imports, and the other on the ultra-low-sulfur diesel transition.