Slide 11 of 19
Notes:
- Because of the higher projected crude oil prices and because of increased tightening in the Northeast heating oil market since the last Outlook, we now expect prices this winter for residential heating oil deliveries to peak at about $1.52 per gallon in January. This is significantly above the monthly peak reached last winter. Because these figures are monthly averages, we expect some price movements for a few days to be above the values shown on the graph.
- This winter’s expected peak price would be the highest on record in nominal terms, eclipsing the high set in February 2000. However, in real (constant dollar) terms, both of these prices remain well below the peak reached in March 1981, when the average residential heating oil price was $1.29 per gallon, equivalent to over $2.50 per gallon today.
- After the current heating season ends, we expect to see a gradual decline in heating oil and diesel fuel prices, reflecting somewhat lower demand and more stable crude oil prices.
