Slide 15 of 15
Notes:
Heating Degree Days (HDDs): The “normal” numbers are the expected values for winter 2000-2001 used in EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook.
The chart indicates the extent to which last winter exhibited below-normal heating degree-days (and thus below-normal heating demand). Temperatures were consistently warmer than normal throughout the 1999-2000 heating season, despite the cold spell in the Northeast spanning January/February. This was particularly true in November 1999, February and March 2001. For the heating season as a whole (October through March), the 1999-2000 winter yielded total HDDs 10.7% below normal (less HDDs means warmer temperatures). Normal temperatures this coming winter would be expected to bring about 11% higher heating demand than we saw last year.
Relative to normal, the 1999-2000 heating season was the warmest in at least 25 years (the next-warmest over that time period was 1995-1996 at 8.5% below normal). The probability that this winter will be at least somewhat colder than last winter is about 95%. The probability that this winter will (overall) be 10% (or more) colder than last year is above 50%, while the probability that this winter will be 20% (or more) colder than last winter is about 10%.
While normal temperatures this winter would imply broad increases in heating demand across the North Central and Northeastern united States, the potential for high demand growth appears to be greatest in the Midwest. Thus, natural gas and propane consumption under normal weather conditions this winter would be expected to exhibit higher year-over-year growth rates than heating oil.
