Slide 5 of 25
Notes:
- Why do stocks matter in the Northeast? They are the nearest source of supply when anything unexpected occurs, and they supply a significant portion of demand during the peak heating season.
- Stocks are normally an important part of PADD 1 winter distillate supply. Over the last 10 years, they provided about 15% of supply during the peak winter months of January and February. One of the biggest stock draws we have seen was in January 1994, when a prolonged severe cold spell required 666 MB/D of stocks, covering almost 36% of demand for that month.
- On average, stocks supply the East Coast with about 260 MB/D in January and 280 MB/D in February. Those supplies represent draws of about 8 million barrels in one month.
- PADD 1 refineries meet about 25% of demand during January and February, and other PADDs -- mostly PADD 3 -- supply 40-50% of the region’s needs.
- Imports generally supply about as much as stocks during the peak months, with most of the product coming from Canada, the Virgin Islands and Venezuela. During the peak months, product from more distant sources also helps to supply the region.
- Thus, about 60% of the East Coast’s supply comes from distant sources, so if cold weather increases demand, resupply from these distant sources can take several weeks.
