U.S. Winter Distillate Production Expected to Increase

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• Production is projected to increase 194 MB/D or 6% this winter.

• Distillate production can be increased by increasing crude oil inputs to refineries -- which increases all product production -- or by increasing distillate yields, which results in a switch in volumes between products. A higher distillate yield means higher distillate production but lower gasoline and/or jet fuel production.

• The forecast production is increasing mainly as the result of increased crude oil throughputs of about 740 MB/D with yields holding at about last winter’s levels.

• Crude inputs as a percent of operable capacity during the fall distillate build September through November are forecast to be high, at about the same levels seen in 1997. Thus, any further increases in distillate production would likely come from increases in yields.

• Net imports are forecast to be similar to last winter’s levels.