Production/Demand Ratio Low In December 1999

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• Recall that stocks fell below the normal band in December last year. Both a strong increase in demand and a production decline contributed to the draw.

• This chart provides a way of combining the two factors to show their impact relative to history. The ratio of production to demand indicates roughly when we are seeing stock builds versus stock draws. (Net imports will also impact stock changes.) For example, when the ratio is less than 1, stocks would would probably be falling.

• The ratio was very low last December.