World Oil Production Scenarios
1. This table summarizes EIA results based on the 3 USGS ultimate recovery volumes, 4 annual production growth rates, and a production decline after the peak at a constant reserves to production ratio of 10.
2. EIA estimates that, based on recent USGS estimates of the global oil resource base, worldwide oil production is likely to continue increasing for more than three decades.
3. EIA’s estimated production peaks are generally later in time than those estimated by other analysts.
4. EIA’s relative optimism is based on:
(1) use of the current USGS world conventional oil resource estimates, which are both larger and more technically sound than past resource estimates used by others, and
(2) use of a methodology for estimating the post-peak production path that is based on the reserve to production (R/P) ratio observed in the United States since oil production peaked in 1970.