12 EIA World Conventional Oil Production Scenarios
1. This summary graph shows all 12 long-term production scenarios based on the 4 annual production growth rates (0, 1, 2, and 3 percent) and the 3 USGS technically recoverable oil resource volumes (2,248, 3,003, and 3,896 billion barrels) equivalent to the 95 percent probable, mean (expected value), and a 5 percent probable volumes.
2. The estimated peak year of production ranges from 2021 to 2067 (a span of 46 years) for the 1, 2, and 3 percent per year growth rates and the 3 resources volumes. Including the 0 percent growth rate extends the estimated production peak range to 2112 (a span of 91 years). For the mean resource and 2 percent production growth rate scenario, which reflect the expected resource volume and the recently experienced production growth rate, the peak occurs in 2037.
3. Market feedback mechanisms might smooth and flatten the sharp production peaks as the actual production paths play out, moving the peaks earlier in time.
4. The peak year would be delayed by discovery of a larger recoverable conventional resource base than is currently estimated, or it could occur earlier with accelerated production rates. It may also vary as global oil demand varies. For example, if demand for oil weakens for economic reasons or because substitutes for conventional oil gain market share, the conventional oil production growth rate may decline and result in a later peak.