Annual Production Scenarios with 2 Percent Growth Rates and Different Resource Levels
1. This graph shows the 2 percent production growth rate with the 3 USGS resource levels.
2. Note that the timing of the estimated production peak is relatively insensitive to variations in the resource base estimate. For example, adding 900 billion barrels - more oil than the world has produced to date - to the mean resource estimate on the 2 percent growth path only delays the estimated production peak by 10 years. Similarly, subtracting 850 billion barrels from the mean resource estimate on the 2 percent growth path accelerates the estimated production peak by 11 years.
3. Note that a R/P ratio of 10 does not imply a 10 percent yearly decline rate because there are additions to reserves each year. For example, the initial decline rates after the peak for the low, mean, and high resource levels are 8.3, 7.5, and 6.7 percent per year respectively. These decline rates eventually slow to 6.5, 5, and 4.3 percent per year, respectively.