Forecast Prices (U.S. Monthly Average)
- Prices have already recovered from the spike, but are expected to remain elevated over year-ago levels because of the higher crude oil prices.
- There is a lot of uncertainty in the market as to where crude oil prices will be next winter, but our current forecast has them declining about $2.50 per barrel (6 cents per gallon) from today’s levels by next October.
- U.S. average residential heating oil prices peaked at almost $1.50 as a result of the problems in the Northeast this past winter. The current forecast has them peaking at $1.08 next winter, but we will be revisiting the outlook in more detail next fall and presenting our findings at the annual Winter Fuels Conference.
- Similarly, diesel prices are also expected to fall. The current outlook projects retail diesel prices dropping about 14 cents per gallon from their U.S. March average of $1.49 per gallon to about $1.35 by the middle of summer. They are not expected to drop much further by the end of the year under the base case crude price scenario.