New York Home Heating Oil Prices

Notes:

• The severity of this spot price increase is causing dramatic changes in residential home heating oil prices, although residential price movements are usually a little slower and spread out over time compared to spot prices. Wholesale prices increased over 50 cents from January 17 to January 24, while retail increased 44 cents in New York.

• Diesel prices are showing a similar pattern to residential home heating oil prices, and are indicating that home heating oil prices may not have peaked yet, although spot prices are dropping. Diesel prices in New England and the Mid-Atlantic increased 30-40 cents January 24 over the prior week, and another 13-15 cents January 31.

• Spot prices plummeted January 31, closing at 82 cents per gallon, indicating the worst part of the crisis may be over, but it is still a little early to relax.

• Once the current price spike is relieved, we may not be entirely out of the woods. Stocks are likely to remain low for the rest of the winter, and we could see more price volatility before the warm weather of spring sets in.

• Also keep in mind that even when the current price spike is resolved, high crude oil prices will keep heating oil prices much higher than they were last year. PADD 1 (East Coast) retail prices January 17 at $1.21 were more indicative of the market before the latest crude oil price surge and did not reflect any impact from the spike. Yet they were 33 cents higher than prices the same time last year as a result of the high crude oil prices.