Major Mid-Term Growth in Atlantic Basin LPG Exports Will Affect U.S. Imports

• Growth in Latin American Exports

  • From Importer (3.7 mmt/yr in 1997)
  • To Exporter (6.0 mmt/yr in 2005)

• Growth in African Exports

  • Primarily Algeria and Nigeria
  • From 5.5 mmt/yr in 1997 to 11 in 2005

• Some Exports Will Move to Asia

• But U.S. Will See Strong Imports too

Source: Purvin and Gertz and LPG World Articles

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• Propane imports to the U.S. could be strong in the future since Atlantic Basin markets will see increases in supply of LPG.
  • Latin America, a net importer of about 3.7 million tons per year in 1997, is expected to become a significant exporter by 2005, providing 6.0 million tons per year to other areas.
    
  • Export volumes will also grow in Algeria and Nigeria. Total African exports will likely double from 5.5 to 11 million tons per year from 1997 to 2005.
    
  • Because of increasing petrochemical demand in the Middle East, almost no LPG export growth is expected from the 25 million tons per year exported in 1997.

• Although LPG production is forecast to grow in Asia, demand will likely exceed supply. Without increases in Middle East supply, the growing Asian import needs will be supplied from eastward flows of product from from the Atlantic Basin.

• Even with growing Asian demand, the U.S. is a prime target for the growing Atlantic Basin supply.

• Although these projections are for 2005, some supply increases from the Atlantic basin are projected for 1999 in spite of low prices. As long as there is storage and prices stay attractive relative to ethane and other feedstocks, imports to the U.S. could very well be high again.