How Might Excess Stocks Decline?

• Supply Will Grow

  • U.S. production should increase over 1998
  • Atlantic Basin imports will be ready for any opportunity

• Demand Will Have To Be Strong

  • Petrochemical demand could remain strong
  • But will also need some cold weather

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• Supply is likely to increase from production.

• Furthermore, projections for Atlantic Basin supply are for strong growth, indicating net imports to the U.S. could be high.

• In summary, it is going to take strong demand to remove the inventory excess by the end of next winter.

• Petrochemical demand could remain strong. But it alone cannot remove the excess.

• We will also need some cold weather to boost residential and commercial demand.

• The next slides will look at these factors in more detail.