World Petroleum Supply/Demand Forecast

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Notes:

With the major problem being price, what does EIA expect for the rest of this year?

After two relatively mild winters with growing crude oil supplies and the Asian financial crises crippling demand in that part of the world, we are awash in excess crude oil.

EIA’s forecast is shown from the second quarter 1998 through the first quarter 1999. EIA is expecting some pull back in supply from selected OPEC and non-OPEC countries, but the amount is uncertain. Over the summer, EIA is expecting a more typical stock build, but this is on top of an unseasonal build in stocks over the fall and winter quarters.

Asian demand is also a large unknown.

EIA is forecasting less surplus supply over demand for spring and summer quarters compared with some other forecasters such as Oil Market Intelligence, but no one is expecting a large price comeback in the near future.