World Petroleum Supply/Demand Forecast
- With the major problem being price, what does EIA expect for the rest of this year?
- After two relatively mild winters with growing crude oil supplies and the Asian
financial crises crippling demand in that part of the world, we are awash in excess crude
- EIAs forecast is shown from the second quarter 1998 through the first quarter
1999. EIA is expecting some pull back in supply from selected OPEC and non-OPEC countries,
but the amount is uncertain. Over the summer, EIA is expecting a more typical stock build,
but this is on top of an unseasonal build in stocks over the fall and winter quarters.
- Asian demand is also a large unknown.
- EIA is forecasting less surplus supply over demand for spring and summer quarters
compared with some other forecasters such as Oil Market Intelligence, but no one is
expecting a large price comeback in the near future.