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Table 3. Estimation Results for National and Sub-PAD District Regions
Dependent Variable: D(RETUS) Dependent Variable: (RETPAD1X) Dependent Variable: (RETPAD1Y) Dependent Variable: D(RETPAD1Z) Dependent Variable: D(RETCA)
Sample: 3/06/1995 8/13/2001 Sample: 7/07/1997 8/06/2001 Sample: 7/07/1997 8/13/2001 Sample: 7/07/1997 8/13/2001 Sample: 9/04/1995 8/13/2001
Variable Coefficient Variable Coefficient Variable Coefficient Variable Coefficient Variable Coefficient
C 0.008 C -0.040 C -0.002 C -0.010 C 0.014
(0.036) (0.090) (0.115) (0.048) (0.065)
DSPOTUS(-1) 0.493*** DSPOTPAD1X(-1) 0.295*** DSPOTPAD1Y(-1) 0.626*** DSPOTPAD1Z(-1) 0.465*** DSPOTCA(-1) 0.509***
(0.015) (0.033) (0.033) (0.017) (0.021)
DSPOTUS(-2) 0.239*** DSPOTPAD1X(-2) 0.322** DSPOTPAD1Y(-2) 0.279*** DSPOTPAD1Z(-2) 0.214*** DSPOTCA(-2) 0.244***
(0.015) (0.026) (0.033) (0.017) (0.024)
DSPOTUS(-3) 0.085*** DSPOTPAD1X(-3) 0.234*** DSPOTPAD1Y(-3) 0.167*** DSPOTPAD1Z(-3) 0.120*** DSPOTCA(-3) 0.083***
(0.015) (0.026) (0.033) (0.017) (0.024)
DSPOTUS(-4) 0.067*** XXX1(-1) 32.895*** DSPOTPAD1Z(-4) 0.015 DSPOTCA(-4) 0.087***
(0.015) (1.479) (0.017) (0.024)
DSPOTUS(-5) 0.051*** XXX2(-1) -0.776 DSPOTPAD1Z(-5) 0.038** DSPOTCA(-5) 0.051**
(0.015) (1.539) (0.017) (0.021)
DSPOTUS(-7) 0.030** XXX3(-1) -15.478*** XXX1(-1) 7.160***
(0.015) (1.632) (0.739)
Sum of Spot Lags 0.965 Sum of Spot Lags 0.851 Sum of Spot Lags 1.070 Sum of Spot Lags 0.853 Sum of Spot Lags 0.973
Adj. R^2 0.829 Adj. R^2 0.886 Adj. R^2 0.737 Adj. R^2 0.857 Adj. R^2 0.800
S.E. Regression 0.661 S.E. Regression 1.307 S.E. Regression 1.685 S.E. Regression 0.705 S.E. Regression 1.140
AIC 2.030957 AIC 3.405396 AIC 3.900367 AIC 2.171359 AIC 3.118797
F-statistic 272.2 F-statistic 277.8 F-statistic 201.1 F-statistic 215.2 F-statistic 249.2
D.W. statistic 1.98 D.W. statistic 1.49 D.W. statistic 2.17 D.W. statistic 1.82 D.W. statistic 1.68

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