Crude Oil, Heating Oil, and Propane Market Outlook

8/13/01


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Table of Contents

Crude Oil, Heating Oil, and Propane Market Outlook

Short-Term World Oil Price Forecast

Price Movements Related to Supply/Demand Balance

OPEC Production Likely To Remain Low

U.S. Reflects World Market

Crude Oil Outlook Conclusions

Distillate Prices Increase With Crude Oil

Distillate Stocks on the East Coast Were Very Low Entering Last Winter

Distillate Demand Strong Last Winter

More Supply Possible This Fall than Forecast

Distillate Fuel Oil Imports Could Be Available - For A Price

Distillate Supply/Demand Balance Reflected in Spreads

Distillate Stocks Expected to Remain Low

Winter Crude Oil and Distillate Price Outlook

Heating Oil Outlook Conclusion

Propane Prices Follow Crude Oil

U.S. Propane Production

Propane Production by Source

U.S. Propane Imports

Propane Demand is Highly Seasonal, But Fresh Supply is Not

U.S. Propane Stocks

PAD District II Stocks (Midwest)

PAD District III Stocks (Gulf Coast)

Propane Outlook Conclusion

Author: Doug MacIntyre

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