Petroleum Outlook: More Volatility?

3/19/01


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Table of Contents

Petroleum Outlook: More Volatility?

Product Price Volatility-This Year and in the Future

WTI Crude Oil Price: Potential for Volatility Around Base Case

OPEC Crude Oil Production 1998-2001

Annual World Oil Demand Growth by Region, 1991-2001

Low Total OECD Oil Stocks* Keep Market Balance Tight

Fundamentals Explain High Crude Oil Prices

Product Price Spreads Over Crude Oil Reflect Product Market-Based Volatility

U.S. Distillate Inventories

Distillate Winter Demand Stronger Than Temperatures Would Imply

High Production Offset Lack of Inventory

High Production Came From High Yields & High Inputs

High Margins Bring High Imports

Gasoline Price Volatility Is a Concern This Summer

Gasoline Volatility

Low Stocks Mean Tight Markets

Regional Stocks

Gasoline Demand Growth Respite Not Expected to Last

Utilization Highest in Summer When Gasoline Production is High

Gasoline Production Not Projected to Be Much Higher than Last Summer

Strong Margins Could Mean High Imports

Retail Motor Gasoline Price* Forecast Doesn’t Reflect Potential Volatility

Issues for Petroleum Market

Excess Capacity is Gone

U.S. is Dependent on Gasoline Imports

Product Imports Projected to Grow

Atlantic Basin is Important Source of Gasoline Imports

Europe

EU-15 Gasoline & Distillate Demand

Supply Implications

Author: John Cook

Home Page: www.eia.gov

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