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Short-Term Energy Outlook

Release Date: November 8, 2016  |  Next Release Date: December 6, 2016  |  Full Report    |   Text Only   |   All Tables   |   All Figures

U.S. Economic Assumptions

Recent Economic Indicators

The Bureau of Economic Analysis reports that real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.1% in the first quarter of 2016, up from the previous estimate of 0.8%. The increase in real GDP in the first quarter reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures, residential fixed investment, state and local government spending, and exports.

EIA used the June 2016 version of the IHS macroeconomic model with EIA's energy price forecasts as model inputs to develop the economic projections in the STEO.

Production, Income, and Employment

Forecast real GDP growth is 1.9% in 2016, above the 1.7% forecast in last month's STEO, and 2.7% in 2017. Real disposable income grows by 3.1% in 2016 and by 2.8% in 2017. Total industrial production falls by 1.4% in 2016, but rises by 2.8% in 2017. Projected growth in nonfarm employment averages 1.7% in 2016 and 1.4% in 2017.

Expenditures

Forecast private real fixed investment growth averages 1.9% and 4.8% in 2016 and 2017, respectively. Real consumption expenditures grow faster than real GDP at 2.8% in 2016 and in 2017. Export growth is 0.8% and 4.1% for the same two years, while import growth is 1.1% in 2016 and 5.0% in 2017. Total government expenditures rise by 1.3% in 2016 and by 1.2% in 2017.

U.S. Economic Assumptions
  2014 2015 2016 2017
Economic Output, Income, and Expenditures (billion chained 2009 dollars)
Real Gross Domestic Product 15982 16397 16626 16978
percent change from prior year 2.4 2.6 1.4 2.1
Real Disposable Personal Income 11931 12343 12663 12953
percent change from prior year 3.5 3.5 2.6 2.3
Real Personal Consumption Expenditures 10869 11215 11513 11787
Real Fixed Investment 2661 2768 2791 2886
Business Inventory Change 65.45 93.43 -5.72 0.58
Employment (millions)
Non-Farm Employment 138.9 141.8 144.3 145.9
Commercial Employment 95.7 98.1 100.3 101.8
Production and Price Indexes
Manufacturing Production Index (2007=100) 102.5 103.6 103.9 105.6
percent change from prior year 1.3 1.1 0.3 1.7
Consumer Price Index (1982-1984=1.00) 2.37 2.37 2.40 2.46
Producer Price Index: All Commodities (1982=1.00) 2.05 1.90 1.86 1.92
Producer Price Index: Petroleum (1982=1.00) 2.78 1.76 1.45 1.66
GDP Implicit Price Deflator (2005=100) 108.8 110.0 111.5 114.1

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