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Short-Term Energy Outlook

Release Date: November 8, 2016  |  Next Release Date: December 6, 2016  |  Full Report    |   Text Only   |   All Tables   |   All Figures

Electricity

  • EIA forecasts total U.S. generation of electricity from utility-scale plants will be 11.2 terawatthours in 2016, up 0.2% from 2015. Total utility-scale generation grows by 0.5% in 2017.
  • EIA expects the share of U.S. total utility-scale electricity generation from natural gas will average 34% this year, and the share from coal will average 30%. Last year, both fuels supplied about 33% of total U.S. electricity generation. In 2017, natural gas and coal are forecast to generate about 33% and 31% of electricity, respectively, as natural gas prices are forecast to increase. Nonhydropower renewables are forecast to generate 8% of electricity generation in 2016 and 9% in 2017. Generation shares of nuclear and hydropower are forecast to be relatively unchanged from 2016 to 2017.

Electricity Retail Prices

U.S. Electricity Summary
  2014 2015 2016 2017
Retail Prices (cents per kilowatthour)
Residential Sector 12.52 12.67 12.55 12.93
Commercial Sector 10.74 10.59 10.35 10.60
Industrial Sector 7.10 6.90 6.74 6.88
Power Generation Fuel Costs (dollars per million Btu)
Coal 2.36 2.23 2.15 2.22
Natural Gas 4.98 3.22 2.94 3.67
Residual Fuel Oil 19.19 10.36 8.82 9.65
Distillate Fuel Oil 22.32 14.43 11.47 14.70
Generation (billion kWh per day)
Coal 4.333 3.715 3.402 3.505
Natural Gas 3.087 3.658 3.852 3.721
Nuclear 2.184 2.184 2.181 2.172
Conventional Hydroelectric 0.705 0.682 0.743 0.725
Renewable (non-hydroelectric) 0.765 0.817 0.919 1.021
Total Generation 11.215 11.198 11.221 11.276
Retail Sales (billion kWh per day)
Residential Sector 3.86 3.84 3.87 3.87
Commercial Sector 3.70 3.72 3.74 3.76
Industrial Sector 2.73 2.63 2.59 2.63
Total Retail Sales 10.31 10.20 10.22 10.28
Primary Assumptions (percent change from previous year)
Real DIsposable Personal Income 3.5 3.5 2.6 2.3
Manufacturing Production Index 1.3 1.1 0.3 1.7
Cooling Degree Days -0.7 14.7 4.9 -9.2
Heating Degree Days 1.9 -10.2 -4.4 5.5
Number of Households 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.1

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