1 Letter from Sen. Murkowski to Mary J. Hutzler, dated December 20, 2001.

2 Letter from Sen. Murkowski to Mary J. Hutzler, dated February 6, 2002.

3 Annual Energy Outlook 2002, With Projections to 2020, U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, DOE/EIA-0383(2002), January 2002.

4 Throughout this report, unless otherwise specified the renewable shares achieved are given using the definition specified in S. 1766.  Because of exemptions in the definition the actual non-hydroelectric renewable share of sales required to meet the S. 1766 10 percent target is only 9.5 percent.

5 S. 1766 does not specify whether this maximum civil penalty is in real or nominal dollars.  For this analysis it is assumed to be in real 2000 dollars.

6 For more information on the National Energy Modeling System see, The National Energy Modeling System An Overview 2000, DOE/EIA-0581(2000), April 7, 2000, Washington, DC.

7 For more information on the representation of a renewable portfolio standard in the National Energy Modeling System see, Analysis of Strategies for Reducing Multiple Emissions from Electric Power Plants: Sulfur Dioxide, Nitrogen Oxides, Carbon Dioxide, and Mercury and a Renewable Portfolio Standard, page 18, SR/OIAF/2001-03, July 2001, Washington, DC, The Comprehensive Electricity Competition Act:  A Comparison of Model Results, page 4, SR/OIAF/99-04, September 1999, Washington, DC, and Analysis of S. 687, the Electric System Public Benefits Protection Act of 1997, SR/OIAF/98-01, February 1998, Washington, DC.

8 Conner, Francfort, and Rinehart, U.S. Hydropower Resource Assessment, DOE/ID-10430.2, December 1998.

9 Hydroelectric generation is excluded from these shares.  The opportunities for increased hydroelectric generation are expected to be small and they are excluded from this analysis.

10 In 1999, total sales from small utilities (those with total sales under 500,000,000 million kilowatt-hours) were 270 billion kilowatt-hours.  This value is assumed to remain constant throughout the projections.

11 This value excludes site-specific cost adjustments.

12 For more information on the representation of wind supply in NEMS see, Energy Information Administration, Issues in Midterm Analysis and Forecasting 1999, “Modeling the Costs of U.S. Wind Supply”, DOE/EIA-0607(99), August 1999, Washington, DC.

13 See http://www.envirospace.com/print.asp?article_id=428.

14 This value represents the discounted present value of the annual change in resource costs over the 2000 to 2020 period using an 8 percent real discount rate, the real cost of capital for generation companies.

15 Biomass dedicated plants are facilities built specifically to produce electricity from biomass fuels.

16 Eric Hirst, "Interactions of Wind Farms With Bulk-Power Operations and Markets", Project for Sustainable FERC Energy Policy, September 2001