Preface

On February 2, 2004, Senator John Sununu requested that the Energy Information Administration (EIA) perform an assessment of the energy production, consumption, and price impacts of the Conference Energy Bill (CEB) of 2003 (also known as the Energy Policy Act of 2003). This report responds to that request by summarizing EIA’s analysis of the CEB provisions that can be modeled using the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) and have the potential to affect energy consumption, supply, prices, and imports. The impacts of the CEB provisions analyzed are estimated by comparing the results of those provisions to the Reference Case of the Annual Energy Outlook 2004 (AEO2004).

The legislation that established EIA in 1977 vested the organization with an element of statutory independence. EIA does not take positions on policy questions. It is the responsibility of EIA to provide timely, high-quality information and to perform objective, credible analyses in support of the deliberations of both public and private decisionmakers. This report does not purport to represent the official position of the U.S. Department of Energy or the Administration.

The projections in the Reference Case used in this report are not statements of what will happen but of what might happen, given the assumptions and methodologies used. The Reference Case projections are business-as-usual trend forecasts, given known technology, technological and demographic trends, and current laws and regulations. Thus, they provide a policy-neutral starting point that can be used to analyze policy initiatives. EIA does not propose, advocate, or speculate on future legislative and regulatory changes. All laws are assumed to remain as currently enacted; however, the impacts of scheduled regulatory changes, when defined, are reflected.