Notes

1 “On-purpose” production facilities are defined by the industry as those facilities where the primary purpose is the production of hydrogen gases or liquids.

2 Scenario with the highest fuel cell vehicle penetration rate and highest fuel economy.

3 Scenario with the lowest fuel cell vehicle penetration rate and lowest fuel economy.

4 The reference case referred to in this report is described more fully in Chapter 3.

5 The comparative estimate is based on EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook 2008 technology assumptions for the efficiencies of hydrogen FCVs and other highly efficient gasoline and diesel vehicle technologies that were affected by the CAFE provisions of the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007, not the average fleet efficiency.

6 U.S. Department of Energy, Analysis of the Transition to a Hydrogen Economy and the Potential Energy Infrastructure Requirements (Draft v.5-11-07)” (Washington, DC, May 2007), p. 4. The current costs assume compressed storage tanks operating at 5,000 psi.

7 Ibid., p. 4; and D.L. Greene, P.N. Leiby, and D. Bowman, Integrated Analysis of Market Transformation Scenarios with HyTrans, ORNL/TM-2007/094 (Oak Ridge, TN: Oak Ridge National Laboratory, June 2007).

8 National Research Council, Committee on Assessment of Resource Needs for Fuel Cell and Hydrogen Technologies, Transitions to Alternative Transportation Technologies—A Focus on Hydrogen (Washington, DC,July 2008).

9 The National Academies, Board on Energy and Environmental Systems, The Hydrogen Economy: Opportunity, Costs, Barriers, and R&D Needs (Washington, DC, February 2004), web site www.nap.edu/catalog/10922.html.

10 For an overview of NEMS refer to Energy Information Administration (EIA), The National Energy Modeling System: An Overview 2003, DOE/EIA-0581(2003) (Washington, DC, March 2003), web site www.eia.gov/oiaf/aeo/overview/index.html.

11 Developed by Argonne National Laboratory. See web site www.transportation.anl.gov/ modeling_simulation/VISION.

12 Census Bureau, U.S. Department of Commerce, Current Industrial Reports: Industrial Gases, 2004 (Washington, DC, September 2005), web site www.census.gov/industry/1/mq325c045.pdf.

13 EIA, Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2008, DOE/EIA-0554(2008) (Washington, DC, June 2008).

14 Ibid.

15 EIA, “Coal Reserves Current and Back Issues,” web site www.eia.gov/cneaf/coal/reserves/reserves.html.

16 In 2006, U.S. crude oil production was 5.1 million barrels per day and natural gas production was 18.5 trillion cubic feet. See EIA, Annual Energy Review 2007, DOE/EIA-0384(2007) (Washington, DC, June 2008).

17 Dr. Daniel de la Torre Ugarte, University of Tennessee, provided the initial supply curves for cellulosic biomass inApril 2007, using the agricultural model POLYSIS. The curves were used initially to study the combined economic and energy impacts of a 25-percent renewable fuel standard and 25-percent electricity renewable portfolio standard, using EIA’s AEO2007 world oil price assumptions. See EIA, Energy and Economic Impacts of Implementing Both a 25-Percent Renewable Portfolio Standard and a 25-Percent Renewable Fuel Standard by 2025, SR/OIAF/2007-05 (Washington, DC, August 2007).

18 EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2008, DOE/EIA-0383(2008) (Washington, DC, June 2008).

19 The current maximum capacity factor for biomass gasification is less than 60 percent, because biomass shredders tend to jam and must be taken offline to be cleared.

20 “On-purpose” production facilities are defined by the industry as those facilities where the primary purpose is the production of hydrogen gases or liquids.

21 U.S. hydrogen production and utilization has been estimated by various sources to have been 9 million metric tons in 2004. See U.S. Climate Change Technology Program, web site www.climatetechnology.gov/library/2005/tech-options/ tor2005-223.pdf. World hydrogen production has been estimated at 52 million metric tons for the captive hydrogen sector and 2.5 million metric tons for the merchant sector by Venki Raman, “Hydrogen Production and Supply Infrastructure for Transportation - Discussion Paper,” in Pew Center on Global Climate Change and National Commission on Energy Policy, 10-50 Workshop Proceedings: The 10-50 Solution: Technologies and Policies for a Low-Carbon Future, March 25-26, 2004, web site www.pewclimate.org/global-warming-in-depth/workshops_and_conferences/tenfifty/proceedings.cfm.

22 On a higher heating value basis of 0.135 million Btu per kilogram (Appendix B) and assuming 5.8 million Btu per barrel for crude oil.

23 U.S. Department of Energy, Hydrogen Analysis Resource Center, “Hydrogen Production Energy Conversion Efficiencies” (Excel file), web site http://hydrogen.pnl.gov/cocoon/morf/hydrogen/article/706. The estimate excludes non-feedstock inputs and the energy losses to generate, transmit, and distribute the electricity.

24 For example, M.W. Kanan, and D.G. Nocera, “In Situ Formation of an Oxygen-Evolving Catalyst in Neutral Water Containing Phosphate and Co2+,” Science (July 31, 2008).

25 The National Academies, Board on Energy and Environmental Systems, The Hydrogen Economy: Opportunity, Costs, Barriers, and R&D Needs (Washington, DC, February 2004), web site www.nap.edu/catalog/10922.html; and U.S. Department of Energy, Hydrogen Program, DOE H2A Analysis, web site www.hydrogen.energy.gov/h2a_analysis.html.

26 The Tennessee Eastman Kodak and Great Plains Gasification facilities are two examples of large-scale commercial applications of coal gasification technology.

27 One example is the sale of CO2 produced at the Great Plains Synfuels Plant in Montana to PanCanadian Petroleum Limited for use in enhanced oil recovery and to test CO2 sequestration at oil fields in Saskatchewan, Canada. See web site www.canadiangeographic.ca/magazine/JF08/feature_carbon.asp.

28 For example, the 155,000 kilogram per day hydrogen biomass gasification plant would require about 720,000 metric tons of biomass per year, which is 167 percent more feedstock than required for a nominal 80-megawatt biomass power plant operating at 83 percent capacity.

29 F. Oney, T.N. Veziroglu, and Z. Dulger, “Evaluation of Pipeline Transportation of Hydrogen and Natural Gas Mixtures,” International Journal of Hydrogen Energy, Vol. 19, No. 10 (1994), pp. 813-822.

30 U.S. Department of Transportation, Office of Pipeline Safety, web site http://primis.phmsa.dot.gov/comm/ PipelineBasics.htm (2007).

31 J. Ogden, “Hydrogen as an Energy Carrier: Outlook for 2010, 2030 and 2050,” in Pew Center on Global Climate Change and National Commission on Energy Policy, 10-50 Workshop Proceedings: The 10-50 Solution: Technologies and Policies for a Low-Carbon Future, March 25-26, 2004, web site www.pewclimate.org/global-warming-in-depth/ workshops_and_conferences/tenfifty/proceedings.cfm.

32 M. Altmann and F. Richert, “Hydrogen Production at Offshore Wind Farms,” presented at the Offshore Wind Energy Special Topic Conference (Brussels, Belgium, December 10-12, 2001).

33 See U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Hydrogen, Fuel Cells & Infrastructure Technologies Program: Multi-Year Research, Development and Demonstration Plan, Table 3.2.2 (Washington, DC, October 2007), web site www1.eere.energy.gov/hydrogenandfuelcells/mypp.

34 Ibid.

35 B. Smith, B. Frame, L. Anovitz, and T. Armstrong, “Composite Technology for Hydrogen Pipelines,” in U.S. Department of Energy, Hydrogen Program, 2008 Annual Merit Review Proceedings, web site www.hydrogen.energy.gov/ annual_review08_proceedings.html.

36 See Northeast Advanced Vehicle Consortium, “Fuel Cell Buses: Where Does Hydrogen Come From?” web site www.navc.org/wheredoes1.html.

37 See OCEES International, Inc., “Hydrogen: The Fuel of the Future,” web site www.ocees.com/textpages/txthydrogen. html.

38 T. Joseph, “Distribution, Storage, and Dispensing of Hydrogen at Vehicle Refueling Stations,” presented at the ASME International Pipeline Conference, Calgary, Alberta, Canada (October 5, 2004), web site www.fitness4service.com/news/ pdf_downloads/h2forum_pdfs/Joseph-APCI.pdf.

39 Ibid.

40 A.R. Abele, “Quantum Hydrogen Storage Systems,” presented at the ARB ZEV Technology Symposium, Sacramento, CA, September 25-27, 2006, web site www.arb.ca.gov/msprog/zevprog/symposium/presentations/abele1_storage.pdf. The higher pressures attempt to increase the acceptability of the range of the vehicle to consumers. The costs quoted assume a production volume of 500,000 160-liter MPa tanks with optimized carbon fiber and health system.

41 California, Florida, Illinois, Michigan, New York, South Carolina, and Washington, DC.

42 Johnson Matthey, “‘Hydrogen Highway’ Comes to the East Coast,” Platinum Today, web site www.platinum.matthey. com/media_room/1141398005.html.

43 Communication with Tom Harrison, Praxair (July 10, 2008).

44 Typically, hydrogen engines and storage systems are described in terms of electrical units. One horsepower equates to 0.746 kilowatts.

45 Personal communication with Robert Natkin, H2 ICE Technical Leader, Ford P/T Research (June 30, 2008).

46 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Light-Duty Automotive Technology and Fuel Economy Trends: 1975 Through 2007, EPA420-R-07-008 (Washington, DC, September 2007).

47 Personal communication with Robert Natkin, H2 ICE Technical Leader, Ford P/T Research (June 30, 2008). Current safety systems cost approximately $4,000 per vehicle in limited quantities and could drop to $100 to $200 per vehicle in production quantities.

48 A typical consumer expects a vehicle range of at least 200 to 300 miles between successive refuelings.

49 T. Markel and A. Simpson, “Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle Energy Storage System Design,” presentation at the Advanced Automotive Battery Conference (May 17-19, 2006), web site www.nrel.gov/docs/fy06osti/40237.pdf.

50 Comparing the Tesla Roadster at 53 kilowatthours to the proposed Chevy Volt at 16 kilowatthours, which depending on how often the batteries are replaced during vehicle life may be more or less than a factor of 3. See G. Berdichevsky et al., “The Tesla Roadster Battery System” (August 2006, updated December 2007); and B. Stewart, “GM Testing Volt’s Battery, iPhone-like Dash on Track to 2010,” Popular Mechanics (April 4, 2008).

51 P. Nunn, “Imagine the 2010 Toyota Prius,” Edmunds Inside Line (May 7, 2008).

52 J. Fahey, “Hydrogen Gas,” Forbes (May 9, 2005).

53 See web site www.chevrolet.com/fuelcell.

54 S. Abuelsamid, “Some Details on Mercedes 2010 Fuel Cell Production Plans,” AutoBlogGreen.com (September 17, 2007).

55 See web site http://automobiles.honda.com/fcx-clarity.

56 U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, “Distributed/Stationary Fuel Cell Systems,” web site www1.eere.energy.gov/hydrogenandfuelcells/fuelcells/systems.html.

57 Discovery Insights, LLC, Commercial and Industrial CHP Technology Cost and Performance Data Analysis for EIA’s NEMS (February 2006), p. 18. If it is assumed that “learning” spilled over from other fuel cell technologies to PEM, the potential cost reductions that might be expected from learning theory would be much smaller than those illustrated earlier, because the starting capacity would have been much larger, exponentially increasing the future capacity additions needed to achieve the same cost reductions.

58 For the PureCell 200, the production cost is $950,000 and the delivery and installation cost varies from $250,000 to $600,000 and translates to an installed cost of $6,000 to $7,750 per kilowatt. The PureCell 400 system is quoted with a production cost of $1.2 million and the same range for the delivery and installation costs and translates to an installed cost of $3,625 to $4,500 per kilowatt.

59 EIA, Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2008, DOE/EIA-0554(2008) (Washington, DC, June 2008). Note that the first-of-a-kind commercial costs are almost always underestimated for any new technology, often by as much as 50 percent.

60 EEA, Characterization of the U.S. Industrial Commercial Boiler Population (Arlington, VA, May 2005), Section ES-6, web site www.cibo.org/pubs/industrialboilerpopulationanalysis.pdf.

61 Excluding refinery demand for steam.

62 Purchased electricity plus generation on site, excluding refinery demand.

63 Argonne National Laboratory, “The VISION Model,” web site www.transportation.anl.gov/modeling_simulation/ VISION.

64 EIA projections, derived using travel projections from the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy.

65 Conversation with Philip Patterson, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy.

66 D.L. Greene, P.N. Leiby, and D. Bowman, Integrated Analysis of Market Transformation Scenarios with HyTrans, ORNL/TM-2007/094 (Oak Ridge, TN: Oak Ridge National Laboratory, June 2007), Figure 16.

67 The National Academies, Board on Energy and Environmental Systems, The Hydrogen Economy: Opportunity, Costs, Barriers, and R&D Needs (Washington, DC, Fepuary 2004), Figure 3-1, web site www.nap.edu/catalog/10922.html.

68 The NEMS model uses model year 2005 LDVs as the base year vehicles. Adoption of technology and the corresponding changes to vehicle attributes are estimated as incremental changes relative to the base year vehicle.

69 In the NEMS model, projections of fuel cell power requirements are increased or decreased to match equivalent conventional gasoline vehicle performance, in order to meet projected consumer preferences for that vehicle attribute. Performance is measured as the ratio of vehicle horsepower to vehicle weight.

70 Carbon coefficients are taken from the VISION model and reflect estimates developed using the GREET model per a conversation with Margaret Singh of Argonne National Laboratory. For a description of the GREET model, see web site www.transportation.anl.gov/software/GREET/index.html.

71 S.C. Davis and S.W. Diegel, Transportation Energy Data Book: Edition 26, ORNL-6978 (2007), Tables 3.8 and 3.9.

72 The petroleum reductions discussed account only for LDV energy demand and do not include petroleum products used in the generation of electricity.

73 EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2008, DOE/EIA-0383(2008) (Washington, DC, June 2008).

74 EIA, Energy Market and Economic Impacts of S.2191, the Lieberman-Warner Climate Security Act of 2007, SR/OIAF/2008-01 (Washington, DC, April 2008); National Energy Modeling System, run S2191HC.D031708A.

75 Projections provided for 2050 are derived from trend extrapolations determined by the VISION model.

76 The hydrogen storage and delivery medium must function well under a wide range of temperatures, provide a range of at least 300 miles between fill-ups, allow rapid fill-ups, and last for at least 3 to 5 years without the need for replacement of the storage medium.

77 Hydrogen-based vehicles may be restricted from traveling over bridges and through tunnels until rigorous safety tests by independent experts certify that vehicle accidents in bridges and tunnels will be at least as safe as accidents of comparable conventional vehicles. Virtually all bridge and tunnel authorities in the United States require special treatment of vehicles containing potentially explosive chemicals.

78 B. Gross, I. Sutherland, and H. Mooiweer, “Hydrogen Fueling Infrastructure Assessment,” RD-11,065 (General Motors Research and Development Center, Detroit, MI, December 2007).

79 As rated by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, the Honda FCV hybrid, Clarity, has a fuel efficiency of 72 to 74 miles per gallon. Source: Stephen Ellis, Honda Motors.

80 U.S. Department of Energy, web sites www1.eere.energy.gov/hydrogenandfuelcells/presidents_initiative.html (April 2008), and www1.eere.energy.gov/hydrogenandfuelcells/news_cost_goal.html (July 2005).

81 $1 per kilogram / 114,000 Btu per kilogram hydrogen. The Lower Heat Value(LHV) is about $8.77 per million Btu. One gallon of gasoline contains approximately 120,000 Btu and weighs about 6.2 pounds (see web site www.santacruzpl.org/ readyref/files/g-l/gasoline.shtml); however, the energy content of 1 gallon of liquid hydrogen is about 26 percent that of gasoline.

82 D.L. Greene, P.N. Leiby, and D. Bowman, Integrated Analysis of Market Transformation Scenarios with HyTrans, ORNL/TM-2007/094 (Oak Ridge, TN: Oak Ridge National Laboratory, June 2007).

83 U.S. Department of Energy, Analysis of the Transition to a Hydrogen Economy and the Potential Energy Infrastructure Requirements (Draft v.5-11-07)” (Washington, DC, May 2007), p. 4. The current costs assume compressed storage tanks operating at 5,000 psi.

84 Ibid. According to the ORNL report, if the PEM fuel cell costs fell to only $60 per kilowatt, the expected market penetration of FCVs could be significantly diminished.

85 U.S. Department of Energy, Analysis of the Transition to a Hydrogen Economy and the Potential Energy Infrastructure Requirements (Draft v.5-11-07)” (Washington, DC, May 2007), p. 19

86 See, for example, EIA, Energy Market and Economic Impacts of S. 2191, the Lieberman-Warner Climate Security Act of 2007, SR/OIAF/2008-01, and Energy and Economic Impacts of Implementing a 25-Percent Renewable Portfolio Standard and Renewable Fuel Standard by 2025, SR/OIAF/2007-05.

87 For example, M. Toman, J. Griffin and R. J. Lempert, Impacts on United States Energy Expenditures and Greenhouse-Gas Emissions of Increasing Renewable-Energy Use (RAND, Santa Monica, CA, June, 2008).

88 U.S. Department of Energy, Analysis of the Transition to a Hydrogen Economy and the Potential Energy Infrastructure Requirements (Draft v.5-11-07) (May 2007), p. 4. The current costs are based on a 5,000 psi storage tank.

89 A.R. Abele, “Quantum Hydrogen Storage Systems,” presented at the ARB ZEV Technology Symposium, Sacramento, CA, September 25-27, 2006, web site www.arb.ca.gov/msprog/zevprog/symposium/presentations/abele1_storage.pdf. The higher pressures attempt to increase the acceptability of the range of the vehicle to consumers. The costs quoted assume a production volume of 500,000 160 liter MPa tanks with optimized carbon fiber and health system.

90 Ibid.

91 Ibid.

92 B. Gross, I. Sutherland, and H. Mooiweer, “Hydrogen Fueling Infrastructure Assessment,” RD-11,065 (General Motors Research and Development Center, Detroit, MI, December 2007).

93 K.-A. Adamson, 2006 Light Duty Vehicle Survey (Fuel Cell Today, March 2006), web site www.fuelcelltoday.com/ media/pdf/surveys/2006-Light-Duty-Vehicle.pdf.

94 K.-A. Adamson, 2007 Niche Transport (2) (Fuel Cell Today, September 2007), web site www.fuelcelltoday.com/media/ pdf/surveys/2007-Niche-Transport%202.pdf.

95 National Research Council, Committee on Assessment of Resource Needs for Fuel Cell and Hydrogen Technologies, Transitions to Alternative Transportation Technologies—A Focus on Hydrogen (Washington, DC,July 2008).

96 DOE’s PEM platinum use as of 2007 is stated as 0.6 grams per kilowatt, and the goal for 2015 is 0.2 grams per kilowatt. See web site www.hydrogen.energy.gov/pdfs/review08/6_fuel_cells_nancy_garland.pdf. Further development and validation of platinum usage and recycling are the subject of continued research.

97 Ibid.

98 See D. Jollie, Platinum 2008 (Johnson Matthey, May 2008). It should be noted that the demand of platinum for the autocatalyst market continues to be partially mitigated by the growing catalytic converter recycling industry. Although the fraction of platinum being recovered so far has not kept up with the accelerating demand growth, this may change in the future as regions such as Europe and eventually Asia develop mature recycling industries similar to that in the United States.

99 W. Huang, Impact of Rising Gas Prices on United States Ammonia Supply, Report WRS-0702 (Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Agriculture, August 2007).

100 Pacific Environmental Services, Inc., Background Report: AP-42 Section 5.2, Synthetic Ammonia (Research Triangle Park, NC, January 1996), web site www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/ap42/ch08/bgdocs/b08s01.pdf.

101 B. Yildiz, M. C. Petri, G. Conzelmann, and C. W. Forsberg, Configuration and Technology Implications of Potential Nuclear Hydrogen System Applications, ANL-05/30 (Chicago, IL: Argonne National Laboratory, July 2005).

102 Personal communication with Hassan Arabghani, VP Business Development & Strategy of Olin Chlor Alkali Products (May 20, 2008).

103 Calculated as 0.135 million Btu per kilogram of hydrogen (HHV) times $11 per million Btu. Any hydrogen gas recovered from flaring would represent a zero opportunity cost.

104 J. Thornton, Pandora’s Poison: Chlorine, Health, and a New Environmental Strategy (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2000).

105 S. Ritchey, “Existing Growth Opportunities for Hydrogen Transportation in California” (March 2006), web site http://hydrogen.its.ucdavis.edu/publications/pubpres/2006presentations/pre06others/ritchey07.

106 B. Suresh, M. Yoneyama, and S. Schlag, “Hydrogen,” in Chemical Economics Handbook (SRI Consulting, October 2007), web site www.sriconsulting.com/CEH/Public/Reports/743.5000.

107 P. Dufor and J. Glen, “Analyst, Investor, and Journalist Site Visit Houston” (Air Liquide, December 18-20, 2005), web site www.airliquide.com/file/otherelement/pj/pdf-corporate/2005-12-19_houston_hydrogen_today59319.pdf.

108 Ibid.

109 R. Cassidy, Air Liquide Canada, “Hydrogen: Current Reality and Future Perspective from a Major Producer” (February 13, 2006).

110 Methanol Institute, “Methanol Supply and Demand in the United States” (November, 2007).

111 W. Huang, Impact of Rising Gas Prices on United States Ammonia Supply, Report WRS-0702 (Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Agriculture, August 2007).

112 Private communications with GM, Honda, Toyota, and Daimler at the DOE/EERE Annual Hydrogram Program Review (May 2008).

113 L. Eudy, K. Chandler, and C. Gikakis, Fuel Cell Buses in U.S. Transit Fleets: Summary of Experiences and Current Status, NREL/TP-560-41967 (Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory, September 2007), web site www.nrel.gov/hydrogen/pdfs/41967.pdf.

114 Ibid.

115 K. Chandler and L. Eudy, SunLine Transit Agency Hydrogen-Powered Transit Buses: Preliminary Evaluation Results, NREL/TP-560-41001 (Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory, February 2007), web site www.nrel.gov/docs/fy07osti/41001.pdf.

116 K.-A. Adamson, 2006 Light Duty Vehicle Survey (Fuel Cell Today, March 2006), web site www.fuelcelltoday.com/ media/pdf/surveys/2006-Light-Duty-Vehicle.pdf.

117 K.-A. Adamson, 2007 Niche Transport (2) (Fuel Cell Today, September 2007), web site www.fuelcelltoday.com/media/ pdf/surveys/2007-Niche-Transport%202.pdf.

118 The $5,000 per kilowatt cost is ascribed to fork lift units and light- to medium-duty trucks.

119 The fuel cell unit usually is divided for convenience into two parts: (1) the fuel stack usually contains the newest portion of the technology and its catalyst that converts hydrogen to electricity and water; and (2) the balance of plant contains the electronics and hardware that connects and integrates the fuel cell to the electricity-demanding devices.

120 A. McDonald and L. Schrattenholzer, “Learning Rates for Energy Technologies,” Energy Policy, Vol. 29, No. 4, pp. 255-261 (2001). McDonald and Schrattenholzer provide empirically derived learning rates for a number of technologies throughout the world (Table 1 of the article). In the empirical data, learning rates vary over time and location. Learning rates of 30 percent are rarely if ever achieved for durable goods for extended periods after the technology has been commercialized. The learning rate for gas turbines has varied between 7 and 20 percent despite the experience it has derived from airplane turbine manufacturing experience. Learning for wind systems has actually decreased on a cost per kilowatt basis. However, since the wind turbine design has increased the maximum utilization rate, the actual cost per kilowatthour has declined, although not at rates exceeding 15 to 20 percent per doubling of capacity.

121 T. Lipman and D. Sperlman, “Forecasting the Cost of Automotive PEM Fuel Cell Systems—Using Bounded Manufacturing Progress Functions,” in C.O. Wene, A. Voss, and T. Fried (editors), Experience Curves for Policy Making-The Case For Energy Technologies (April 2000), Proceedings of the IEA Workshop, Stuttgart, Germany, May 10-11, 1999.

122 Overnight Cost (C) is a function of cumulative capacity (Q): C(Q) = a * Q-b. Parameter a is determined from initial conditions, and b is related to the learning rate.

123 The balance of plant component of fuel cells typically is composed of electronics that regulate fuel input and control voltage and otherwise control the quality of the power sent to the electric motor. Most of these components are not as new as the PEM fuel stacks and represent a more mature technology. Consequently, the cumulative experience associated with balance of plant is much higher than the cumulative experience associated with the PEM fuel stacks. The use of 2,000 megawatts for the balance of plant component is more indicative of the starting point for “technological progress” in the projection.

124 At current platinum levels in fuel cells, 500,000 new FCVs per year require 25.6 tons of platinum if 1.7 ounces is used per 80-kilowatt system (0.6 g per kW) and it is also assumed that each new FCV displaces a conventional vehicle’s catalytic converter (containing about 1.5 grams per vehicle). [(80x0.6 – 1.5)x500,000/(28.35x16))/2,000]. If the R&D goal for 2015 is achieved (0.2 g per kW), 8.0 tons of platinum (computed under the same assumptions) will be required to power the 80-kilowatt systems. R&D success is far from assured.

125 Mr. Stephen Ellis of American Honda Corporation noted on July 10, 2008, that 200 FCX Clarity vehicles will be leased for 3 years beginning in 2008 in California, and that the Clarity is a hybrid fuel cell vehicle using a 100-kilowatt fuel cell electric motor as the principle drive and the electric battery with the usual regenerative braking to produce the supplemental drive; the hybrid gets an EPA-estimated 72 to 74 mile per gallon equivalent vehicle. Honda produces the entire system. No specific information was provided on the fuel cell costs, amounts of catalyst used per 100-kilowatt system, or the production cost of the vehicle. Mr. Ellis said that while the $1 million or so price may be appropriate for production numbers of about 200 Clarity vehicles per year, he was confident that the production cost would decline with larger production volumes, to perhaps the price of a luxury vehicle.

126 See web site www.worldcarfans.com/9080806.004/nissan-breakthrough-doubles-fuel-cell-power-density.

127 See web site http://africa.reuters.com/metals/news/usnSP243749.html.

128 This statement assumes that, for the most part, the platinum would be recycled some time after FCVs have accounted for 50 percent of new vehicle purchases for 10 consecutive years.