Analysis of Strategies with AEO2001 Technology Assumptions

18 Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2001, DOE/EIA-0383(2001) (Washington, DC, December 2000), web site www.eia.gov/oiaf/aeo/index.html.

19 Interlaboratory Working Group, Scenarios for a Clean Energy Future, ORNL/CON-476 and LBNL-44029 (Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, November 2000), web site www.ornl.gov/ORNL/ Energy_Eff/CEFOnep.pdf.

20 At this time, emissions limits on cogenerators are not represented.

21 See web site www.epa.gov/airmarkets/arp/.

22 Unconventional natural gas includes low-permeability or tight sandstones, natural gas shales, and coalbed methane.

23 Total industrial output includes oil and gas production, coal mining, and refining. Consequently, the value of total industrial output may increase in the cases with emissions limits.

24 Energy Information Administration, Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2001, DOE/EIA-0554(2001)(Washington, DC, December 2001), web site www.eia.gov/oiaf/fore_pub.html.

25 Buildings: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Technology Forecast Updates—Residential and Commercial Building Technologies (Arthur D. Little, Inc., September 1998) and EIA, Technology Forecast Updates—Residential and Commercial Building Technologies—Advanced Adoption Case (Arthur D. Little, Inc., September 1998). Industrial: EIA, Aggressive Technology Strategy for the NEMS Model (Arthur D. Little, Inc., September 1998). Transportation: U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Scenarios of U.S. Carbon Reductions: Potential Impacts of Energy Technologies by 2010 and Beyond, ORNL/CON-444 (Washington, DC, September 1997); Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Office of Transportation Technologies, OTT Program Analysis Methodology: Quality Metrics 2000 (November 1998); J. DeCicco and M. Ross, An Updated Assessment of the Near-Term Potential for Improving Automotive Fuel Economy (Washington, DC: American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy, November 1993); and F. Stodolsky, A. Vyas, and R. Cuenca, Heavy and Medium Duty Truck Fuel Economy and Market Penetration Analysis, Draft Report (Chicago, IL: Argonne National Laboratory, August 1999).

26 Fossil-fired generating technologies: U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Fossil Energy. Renewable Generating Technologies: U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, and Electric Power Research Institute, Renewable Energy Technology Characterizations, EPRI-TR-109496 (Washington, DC, December 1997).

27 U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, and Electric Power Research Institute, Renewable Energy Technology Characterizations, EPRI-TR-109496 (Washington, DC, December 1997).

28 For this study, the potential for worldwide technology improvements in oil production was not addressed.

29 U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Scenarios of U.S. Carbon Reductions: Potential Impacts of Energy Technologies by 2010 and Beyond, ORNL/CON-444 (Washington, DC, September 1997); Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Office of Transportation Technologies, OTT Program Analysis Methodology: Quality Metrics 2000 (November 1998); J. DeCicco and M. Ross, An Updated Assessment of the Near-Term Potential for Improving Automotive Fuel Economy (Washington, DC: American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy, November 1993); and F. Stodolsky, A. Vyas, and R. Cuenca, Heavy and Medium Duty Truck Fuel Economy and Market Penetration Analysis, Draft Report (Chicago, IL: Argonne National Laboratory, August 1999).