Preface

On July 31, 2003, Sen. Byron L. Dorgan requested that the Energy Information Administration (EIA) perform a quantitative analysis of the energy consumption and oil savings that would result from the Senate (H.R.6.EAS) and House (H.R.6.EH) energy bills in support of the Senate and House conferees. This report responds to that request by summarizing EIA’s analysis of those provisions that have the largest potential to affect energy consumption and supply.

In order to provide this report in time for the Conference Committee review, EIA could not provide a complete analysis of all of the various provisions in each bill. The quantitative estimates discussed in this report are drawn from EIA analyses of proposed energy legislation over the past two years. The provisions modeled do not always correspond exactly to the text in the current bills, but in most cases the impacts would be similar to those provided in this report. An exception may be natural gas markets, where recent data have indicated that EIA’s past projections of natural gas prices may be optimistic. Some additional provisions, not previously analyzed, are also covered, though mostly qualitatively.

The legislation that established EIA in 1977 vested the organization with an element of statutory independence. EIA does not take positions on policy questions. It is the responsibility of EIA to provide timely, high-quality information and to perform objective, credible analyses in support of the deliberations of both public and private decisionmakers. This report does not purport to represent the official position of the U.S. Department of Energy or the Administration.

The projections in the Reference Cases used in this report are not statements of what will happen but of what might happen, given the assumptions and methodologies used. The Reference Case projections are business-as-usual trend forecasts, given known technology, technological and demographic trends, and current laws and regulations. Thus, they provide a policy-neutral starting point that can be used to analyze policy initiatives. EIA does not propose, advocate, or speculate on future legislative and regulatory changes. All laws are assumed to remain as currently enacted; however, the impacts of scheduled regulatory changes, when defined, are reflected.