Table C9. Assumed Rates of Technology Progress for Costs, Drilling Success Rates, and Reserve Additions per Well for Lower 48 Natural Gas, 1998-2015

Table C9. Assumed Rates of Technology Progress for Costs, Drilling Success Rates, and
Reserve Additions per Well for Lower 48 Natural Gas, 1998-2015
(Percent Improvement per Year)

Area of Improvement	NPC Study	EIA Study
Area of Improvement	NPC Study	Accelerated Depletion Case	Reference Case
Drilling and Completion Costs
Onshore Wells	2.5	1.29	1.29
Shallow Offshore Wells	2.5	2.02	2.02
Deep Offshore Wells	3.0	2.02	2.02
Unconventional Gas Wells	2.5	0.50	0.50
New Field Exploration Success
Conventional	1.5 to 2.2	0.50	0.50
Unconventional^a	—	0.00	0.25
Reserve Additions per Well
Conventional Onshore
Shallow	1.0	0.27	0.27
Deep	1.0	1.61	1.61
Conventional Offshore	1.0	4.14	4.14
Low Permeability	2.1	0.25	0.25
Unconventional	1.5 to 3.0	0.25	0.75 to 1.75
^aCombined exploration and development success for unconventional gas in the EIA study. Sources: National Petroleum Council, Natural Gas: Meeting the Challenges of the Nation’s Growing Natural Gas Demand (Washington, DC, December 1999); and Energy Information Administration, Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting, National Energy Modeling System runs OGBASE.D051200A and OGDEPL.D051200A.