U.S. Carbon Emissions
(Million Metric Tons)

1,463

1,791

1,668

1,670

1,462

1,466

1,243

1,249

Emissions Reductions
(Percent Change From Reference Case)

—

—

6.9

6.8

18.4

18.1

30.6

30.3

Total Energy Consumption
(Quadrillion Btu)

(Percent Change From Reference Case)

93.8

—

111.2

—

106.5

-4.2

106.4

-4.3

99.6

-10.4

100.1

-10.0

91.7

-17.5

93.0

-16.4

Carbon Price
(1996 Dollars per Metric Ton)

—

—

67

62

163

149

348

316

Carbon Revenue^a
(Billion 1996 Dollars)

—

—

110

102

233

214

424

386

Gasoline Price
(1996 Dollars per Gallon)

(Percent Change From Reference Case)

1.23

—

1.25

—

1.39

11.2

1.37

9.6

1.55

24.0

1.53

22.4

1.91

52.8

1.82

45.6

Average Electricity Price
(1996 Cents per Kilowatthour)

(Percent Change From Reference Case)

6.8

—

5.9

—

7.1

20.3

7.0

18.6

8.8

49.2

8.5

44.1

11.0

86.4

10.4

76.3

Actual Gross Domestic Product^b
(Billion 1992 Dollars)

(Percent Change From Reference Case)

(Annual Percentage Growth Rate, 2000-2010)

6,928

—

—

9,429

—

2.1

9,333

-1.0

2.0

9,385

-0.5

2.0

9,241

-2.0

1.9

9,363

-0.7

2.0

9,032

-4.2

1.6

9,312

-1.2

2.0

Potential Gross Domestic Product
(Billion 1992 Dollars)

(Percent Change From Reference Case)

(Annual Percentage Growth Rate, 2000-2010)

6,930

—

—

9,482

—

2.1

9,469

-0.1

2.1

9,468

-0.1

2.1

9,448

-0.4

2.1

9,452

-0.3

2.1

9,410

-0.8

2.1

9,417

-0.7

2.1

Change in Energy Intensity
(Annual Percent Change, 2000-2010)

(Percent Change From Reference Case)

—

—

-1.0

—

-1.3

33.3

-1.3

36.4

-1.9

 91.0

-1.9

92.4

-2.4

149.9

-2.4

148.7

^aThe carbon revenues do not include fees on the nonsequestered portion of petrochemical feedstocks, nonpurchased refinery fuels, or industrial other petroleum.
^bCarbon permit revenues are assumed to be returned to households through personal income tax rebates.
Note: In the cases with an early start date, the peak impact on the economy occurs in 2005 and declines by 2010. For example, in the 1990+9% case with the 2000 start date, the percent change in actual gross domestic product is -1.6 percent in 2005, compared to -0.7 percent in 2010.
Source: Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting, National Energy Modeling System runs KYBASE.D080398A, FD24ABV.D080398B, EARLY24.D052099A, FD09ABV.D080398B, EARLY09.D053199A, FD07BLW.D080398B, and EARLY07.D052199A.