Price Responsiveness in the AEO2003 NEMS Residential
and Commercial Buildings Sector Models
Table
1. Summary of Price Responses in the NEMS AEO2003
and AEO99
Residential and Commercial Buildings Models
| Sector and Fuel |
NEMS Model Year |
Short-Run Own-Price Elasticity |
Long-Run Own-Price and Cross-Price Elasticity |
||||
| Electricity |
Natural Gas |
Distillate Fuel |
|||||
| 1-Year |
2-Year |
3-Year |
|||||
| Residential |
|||||||
| Electricity |
AEO2003 |
-0.20 |
-0.29 |
-0.34 |
-0.49 |
0.01 |
0.00 |
| AEO99 |
-0.23 |
-0.31 |
0.03 |
0.00 |
|||
| Natural Gas |
AEO2003 |
-0.14 |
-0.24 |
-0.30 |
0.13 |
-0.41 |
0.02 |
| AEO99 |
-0.26 |
0.08 |
-0.43 |
0.02 |
|||
| Distillate Fuel |
AEO2003 |
-0.15 |
-0.27 |
-0.34 |
0.01 |
0.05 |
-0.60 |
| AEO99 |
-0.28 |
0.05 |
0.15 |
-0.53 |
|||
| Commercial |
|||||||
| Electricity |
AEO2003 |
-0.10 |
-0.17 |
-0.20 |
-0.45 |
0.01 |
0.00 |
| AEO99 |
-0.23 |
-0.24 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
|||
| Natural Gas |
AEO2003 |
-0.14 |
-0.24 |
-0.29 |
0.86 |
-0.40 |
0.01 |
| AEO99 |
-0.28 |
0.00 |
-0.34 |
0.03 |
|||
| Distillate Fuel |
AEO2003 |
-0.13 |
-0.23 |
-0.28 |
0.08 |
0.75 |
-0.39 |
| AEO99 |
-0.47 |
0.00 |
0.49 |
-0.87 |
|||
| Commercial Electricity by End Use |
|||||||
| Core End Uses |
AEO2003 |
-0.17 |
-0.29 |
-0.36 |
-0.88 |
— |
— |
| AEO99 |
-0.24 |
-0.31 |
— |
— |
|||
| Other End Uses |
AEO2003 |
-0.03 |
-0.05 |
-0.06 |
-0.24 |
— |
— |
| AEO99 |
-0.24 |
-0.20 |
— |
— |
|||
| Sources: AEO2003: Energy Information Administration, calculated from the following price path scenarios using NEMS AEO2003: regeneration of the reference case price path, ELAST03.D121203B; electricity price increase case, ELAST03.D121203G; natural gas price increase case, ELAST03.D121203H; distillate fuel price increase case, ELAST03.D121203I. AEO99: S.H. Wade, “Price Responsiveness in the NEMS Building Sector Models,” in Energy Information Administration, Issues in Midterm Analysis and Forecasting 1999, DOE/EIA-0607(99) (Washington, DC, August 1999). | |||||||