Impact of Technological Change and Productivity on the
Coal Market
Footnotes
[1] Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 1998, DOE/EIA-0384(98) (Washington, DC, July 1999), Table 7.6. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 1998, DOE/EIA-0384(98) (Washington, DC, July 1999), Table 7.6.
[2] Details of the econometric specification for coal minemouth pricing are presented in the documentation report, Coal Market Module of the National Energy Modeling System, DOE/EIA-M060(2000) (Washington, DC, January 2000). Details of the econometric specification for coal minemouth pricing are presented in the documentation report, Coal Market Module of the National Energy Modeling System, DOE/EIA-M060(2000) (Washington, DC, January 2000).
[3] Labor productivity is calculated by dividing total coal production by the total direct hours worked by all employees engaged in production, preparation, processing, development, maintenance, repair, and shop or yard work at mining operations, but excluding office workers. For 1997 and prior years, as well as the AEO2000 forecast years, the measure also includes hours for all technical and engineering personnel. Increased productivity may be related in part to reducing staff other than miners. For 1998 and future years, EIA will obtain coal production and employment data through a data-sharing agreement with the Mine Safety and Health Administration (MSHA). MSHA has a separate category for office workers, which includes both professional and clerical employees. Employee hours in this category will not be included in the productivity statistic, beginning in 1998. The coal forecasts appearing in AEO2001 and in subsequent reports will be based on the productivity definition used by MSHA and published by EIA in its Coal Industry Annual. Labor productivity is calculated by dividing total coal production by the total direct hours worked by all employees engaged in production, preparation, processing, development, maintenance, repair, and shop or yard work at mining operations, but excluding office workers. For 1997 and prior years, as well as the AEO2000 forecast years, the measure also includes hours for all technical and engineering personnel. Increased productivity may be related in part to reducing staff other than miners. For 1998 and future years, EIA will obtain coal production and employment data through a data-sharing agreement with the Mine Safety and Health Administration (MSHA). MSHA has a separate category for office workers, which includes both professional and clerical employees. Employee hours in this category will not be included in the productivity statistic, beginning in 1998. The coal forecasts appearing in AEO2001 and in subsequent reports will be based on the productivity definition used by MSHA and published by EIA in its Coal Industry Annual.
[4] Bureau of Labor Statistics, web site http://stats.bls.gov/ceshome.htm. Earnings include premium pay for overtime, but exclude irregular bonuses, various welfare benefits, and payroll taxes paid by employers. Bureau of Labor Statistics, web site http://stats.bls.gov/ceshome.htm. Earnings include premium pay for overtime, but exclude irregular bonuses, various welfare benefits, and payroll taxes paid by employers.
[5] A.D. Ellerman, T.M. Stoker, and E.R. Berndt, Sources of Productivity Growth in the American Coal Industry, MIT-CEEPR 98-004 WP (Cambridge, MA: Massachusetts Institute of Technology, March 1998). A.D. Ellerman, T.M. Stoker, and E.R. Berndt, Sources of Productivity Growth in the American Coal Industry, MIT-CEEPR 98-004 WP (Cambridge, MA: Massachusetts Institute of Technology, March 1998).
[6] U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Productivity and Costs: Service-Producing and Mining Industries, 1987-98, web site ftp://146.142.4.23/pub/news.release/prin.txt. The BLS productivity measure, expressed in output per employee hour, uses a chained output index based on the production tonnages of four ranks of coal (bituminous, subbituminous, lignite, and anthracite) that are weighted by their corresponding minemouth prices. U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Productivity and Costs: Service-Producing and Mining Industries, 1987-98, web site ftp://146.142.4.23/pub/news.release/prin.txt. The BLS productivity measure, expressed in output per employee hour, uses a chained output index based on the production tonnages of four ranks of coal (bituminous, subbituminous, lignite, and anthracite) that are weighted by their corresponding minemouth prices.
[7] U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Productivity and Costs: Service-Producing and Mining Industries, 1987-98, web site ftp://146.142.4.23/pub/news.release/prin.txt. U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Productivity and Costs: Service-Producing and Mining Industries, 1987-98, web site ftp://146.142.4.23/pub/news.release/prin.txt.
[8] U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Productivity and Costs: Manufacturing Industries, 1987-97, web site ftp://146.142.4.23/pub/news.release/prin2.txt. Note that the end year is 1997 for Manufacturing Industries, compared with 1998 for Service-Producing and Mining Industries. U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Productivity and Costs: Manufacturing Industries, 1987-97, web site ftp://146.142.4.23/pub/news.release/prin2.txt. Note that the end year is 1997 for Manufacturing Industries, compared with 1998 for Service-Producing and Mining Industries.
[9] U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Productivity and Costs: Service-Producing and Mining Industries, 1987-98, web site ftp://146.142.4.23/pub/news.release/prin.txt. U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Productivity and Costs: Service-Producing and Mining Industries, 1987-98, web site ftp://146.142.4.23/pub/news.release/prin.txt.
[10] A.D. Ellerman, T.M. Stoker, and E.R. Berndt, Sources of Productivity Growth in the American Coal Industry, MIT-CEEPR 98-004 WP (Cambridge, MA: Massachusetts Institute of Technology, March 1998). A.D. Ellerman, T.M. Stoker, and E.R. Berndt, Sources of Productivity Growth in the American Coal Industry, MIT-CEEPR 98-004 WP (Cambridge, MA: Massachusetts Institute of Technology, March 1998).
[11] Energy Information Administration, Coal Industry Annual 1997, DOE/EIA-0548(97) (Washington, DC, December 1998), Table 40. Energy Information Administration, Coal Industry Annual 1997, DOE/EIA-0548(97) (Washington, DC, December 1998), Table 40.
[12] The values for production and productivity for 1998 shown in Tables 3 and 4 are forecasts, which are consistent with AEO2000. Final historical values for 1998 were published in June 2000 in EIA’s Coal Industry Annual 1998, DOE/EIA-0584(98), after the December 1999 release of AEO2000. The historical values for regional production and productivity differ slightly from the forecast values for 1998 that appear in this paper. The values for production and productivity for 1998 shown in Tables 3 and 4 are forecasts, which are consistent with AEO2000. Final historical values for 1998 were published in June 2000 in EIA’s Coal Industry Annual 1998, DOE/EIA-0584(98), after the December 1999 release of AEO2000. The historical values for regional production and productivity differ slightly from the forecast values for 1998 that appear in this paper.
[13] The forecast values for average annual percent change in coal production by region are based on coal tonnage. If the computation were based on the total energy content of the coal produced, slightly different growth rates would result. For example, the growth rate of U.S. coal production, based on energy content, is projected to increase at an annual rate of 0.6 percent over the period, compared to the 0.7-percent growth in coal tonnage. The forecast values for average annual percent change in coal production by region are based on coal tonnage. If the computation were based on the total energy content of the coal produced, slightly different growth rates would result. For example, the growth rate of U.S. coal production, based on energy content, is projected to increase at an annual rate of 0.6 percent over the period, compared to the 0.7-percent growth in coal tonnage.
[14] The values for production and productivity for 1998 shown in Tables 3 and 4 are forecasts, which are consistent with AEO2000. Final historical values for 1998 were published in June 2000 in EIA’s Coal Industry Annual 1998, DOE/EIA-0584(98), after the December 1999 release of AEO2000. The historical values for regional production and productivity differ slightly from the forecast values for 1998 that appear in this paper. The values for production and productivity for 1998 shown in Tables 3 and 4 are forecasts, which are consistent with AEO2000. Final historical values for 1998 were published in June 2000 in EIA’s Coal Industry Annual 1998, DOE/EIA-0584(98), after the December 1999 release of AEO2000. The historical values for regional production and productivity differ slightly from the forecast values for 1998 that appear in this paper.
[15] Energy Information Administration, Coal Industry Annual 1997, DOE/EIA-0548(97) (Washington, DC, December 1998), Table 2. Energy Information Administration, Coal Industry Annual 1997, DOE/EIA-0548(97) (Washington, DC, December 1998), Table 2.
[16] Energy Information Administration, The U.S. Coal Industry in the 1990’s: Low Prices and Record Production, DOE/EIA-0631(99) (Washington, DC, September 1999), Table 1. Energy Information Administration, The U.S. Coal Industry in the 1990’s: Low Prices and Record Production, DOE/EIA-0631(99) (Washington, DC, September 1999), Table 1.
[17] Alan Greenspan, U.S. Federal Reserve, web site www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2000/20000613.htm. Alan Greenspan, U.S. Federal Reserve, web site www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2000/20000613.htm.
[18] “U.S. Longwall Census ’99,” Coal Age (1999). “U.S. Longwall Census ’99,” Coal Age (1999).
[19] Energy Information Administration, Coal Industry Annual 1997, DOE/EIA-0548(97) (Washington, DC, December 1998), Table 54. Energy Information Administration, Coal Industry Annual 1997, DOE/EIA-0548(97) (Washington, DC, December 1998), Table 54.
[20] P&H Mining Equipment, web site www.phmining.com/products/index.html. P&H Mining Equipment, web site www.phmining.com/products/index.html.
[21] “Ultra-Class Haul Trucks,” Coal Age, web site www.coalage.com/feature1.html. “Ultra-Class Haul Trucks,” Coal Age, web site www.coalage.com/feature1.html.
[22] Harnischfeger Industries, 1998 Annual Report, p. 6.
[23] Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 1998, DOE/EIA-0384(98) (Washington, DC, July 1999), Table 7.8.
[24] U.S. Bureau of Census, web site www.census.gov/prod/2000pubs/ace-98.pdf, and prior versions.
[25] CONSOL Energy, Securities and Exchange Commission Form 10-Q (September 30, 1999).
[26] Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2000, DOE/EIA-0383(2000) (Washington, DC, December 1999), Table A16.
[27] Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2000, DOE/EIA-0383(2000) (Washington, DC, December 1999), pp. 221 and 241 and Table F16.
[28] This is the standard deviation
of the moving average of year to year productivity growth rates over the
period 1980-1995, calculated separately for surface and deep mines