[74] For a description of the SAGE model, see Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook 2004, DOE/EIA-0484(2004) (Washington, DC, April 2004).

[75] For a detailed review of real GDP and oil projections by country and region, see International Energy Outlook 2004.

[76] A more rigorous determination of income elasticities, which controlled for price changes, was also undertaken. It involved a statistical estimation of the relationship between the projected demand for oil and projected real GDP and world oil prices. The numbers quoted here for income elasticities are similar to those that were statistically estimated.

[77] For a recent study and a review of the empirical literature see D. Gately and H.G. Huntington, “The Asymmetric Effects of Changes in Price and Income on Energy and Oil Demand,” OP50, Energy Modeling Forum (Stanford, CA: Stanford University, August 2001).

[78] D. Gately and H.G. Huntington, “The Asymmetric Effects of Changes in Price and Income on Energy and Oil Demand,” OP50, Energy Modeling Forum (Stanford, CA: Stanford University, August 2001).

[79] Cumulative production in a year is obtained by multiplying oil production per day by 365. For oil-producing countries, it is assumed that oil is sold domestically at the same world oil price.