Introduction

[1]   Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2009 (AEO2009), DOE/EIA-0383(2009),
(Washington, DC, February 2009). 

[2] NEMS documentation reports are available on the EIA Homepage (http://www.eia.gov/reports/ reports_kindD.asp?type=model documentation). 

[3]  On December 23, 2008, after the November 5 cutoff date for inclusion of changes in Federal and State laws and regulations in AEO2009, the United States Court of Appeals for the District of  Columbia issued a new ruling that remanded but did not vacate CAIR, noting that "Allowing CAIR to remain in effect until it is replaced by a rule consistent with our opinion would at least temporarily preserve the environmental values."  Source:  United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit, No. 05-1244, web site www.epa.gov/airmarkets/progsregs/cair/docs/CAIRRemandOrder.pdf. This change allows the EPA to modify CAIR to address the objections raised by the Court in its earlier decision while leaving the rule in place.  The change is not reflected in AEO2009. 

[4] Corn ethanol production may exceed 15 billion gallons if it is economic to do so without the RFS credit. 

[5] For gasoline blended with ethanol, the tax credit of 51 cents (nominal) per gallon of ethanol is assumed to be available for 2008; however, it is reduced to 45 cents starting in 2009 (the year after annual U.S. ethanol consumption surpasses 7.5 billion gallons), as mandated by the Food, Conservation, and Energy Act of 2008 (the Farm Bill), and it is set to expire after 2010. In addition, modeling updates include the Farm Bill’s mandated extension of the ethanol import tariff, at 54 cents per gallon, to December 31, 2010. Finally, again in accordance with the Farm Bill, a new cellulosic ethanol producer’s tax credit of $1.01 per gallon, valid through 2012, is implemented in the model; however, it is reduced by the amount of the blender’s tax credit amount. Thus, in 2009 and 2010, the cellulosic ethanol producer’s tax credit is modeled as $1.01 - $0.45 = $0.56 per gallon, and in 2011 and 2012 it is set at $1.01 per gallon 

[6] California Environmental Protection Agency, Air Resources Board, “Phase 3 California Reformulated Gasoline Regulations,” web site www.arb.ca.gov/regact/2007/carfg07/carfg07.htm.