Natural Gas Summary from the Short-Term
Energy Outlook |
|
Natural Gas Summary from the Short-Term Energy
Outlook: EIA projects that natural gas wellhead prices will remain relatively high through the rest of the winter and perhaps well into spring, with prices averaging $4.90 per MMBtu through March and $4.45 in April (Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2003). Wellhead prices for the overall heating season (November through March), assuming normal weather for the rest of the winter, are expected to average $4.22 per MMBtu, or $1.86 more than last winter's level. Spot prices at the Henry Hub have been generally above $5.00 per MMBtu thus far in 2003, and briefly rose above $6.00 during the third week of January as Arctic weather covered much of the nation. Prices again topped $6.00 on February 4 and stayed above this threshold through February 12 in response to another blast of cold weather. Overall in 2003, average wellhead prices are projected to increase about $1.38 per MMBtu over the 2002 level to $4.25 per MMBtu. This projection is based on the expectation of lower volumes of underground gas in storage compared with last year and continued increases in demand (particularly in the first quarter) over 2002 levels. Cold temperatures since the first of the year have increased heating demand and led to a more rapid drawdown of storage stocks than previously anticipated. As of February 7, 2003, working gas in storage was about 37 percent lower than year-earlier levels and 19 percent below the previous 5-year average. In 2004, continued tightness of domestic natural gas supply is expected to keep the average wellhead price near the 2003 level. Based
on new data provided by the Minerals Management Service, estimates of dry
natural gas production in 2002 have been revised downward to 18.9 trillion
cubic feet (Tcf), which is 2.3 percent less than the 19.4 Tcf produced in
2001. Some of the reduction is due to
outages in September and October related to hurricane activity. At least
moderate production increases are expected in 2003 and 2004 as high natural
gas prices and strong near-term demand pressures drive drilling activity and
well completions to very robust levels over the period. Also, after growing
by only 1.1 percent in 2002 owing to high stocks and lower demand, net
imports of natural gas are expected to increase by 5.6 percent in 2003, which
should relieve some of the potential pressure on the domestic market. Total
natural gas demand in 2002, based on data reported through September,
declined by an estimated 1.4 percent from the 2001 level, mainly because of
overall weakness in the industrial sector. However, solid growth in natural
gas demand seems likely in 2003, especially if industrial sector consumption
expands significantly as expected. In 2004, natural gas demand is projected
to rise by an additional 2.4 percent as industrial demand continues its
recovery from its 2002 lows.
Source: Energy Information Administration, Short-Term
Energy Outlook, February 2003. Need Help? |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
For
Technical Problems |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Energy Information Administration, EI 30 |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Home | Petroleum | Gasoline | Diesel | Propane | Natural Gas | Electricity | Coal | Nuclear |
Renewables | Alternative Fuels | Prices | States | International | Country Analysis Briefs |
Environment | Analyses | Forecasts | Processes | Sectors |