U.S. Energy Information Administration - EIA - Independent Statistics and Analysis
Short-Term Energy and Summer Fuels Outlook
Supplement: Uncertainties in the Short-Term Global Petroleum and Other Liquids Supply Forecast
Release date: February 11, 2014
EIA forecasts that global petroleum and other liquids (or liquid fuels) supply will grow year-over-year by 1.7 million barrels per day (bbl/d) in 2014 and 1.4 million bbl/d in 2015. In 2014, EIA expects record high growth of 1.9 million bbl/d in countries outside of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), with the United States accounting for more than 50% of the total growth. OPEC liquid fuels supply is expected to decline by almost 0.2 million bbl/d in 2014, as some OPEC producers, led by Saudi Arabia, reduce production to accommodate the non-OPEC supply growth. In 2015, EIA expects non-OPEC liquid fuels supply growth to moderate to 1.5 million bbl/d, while OPEC liquid fuels supply declines by more than 0.1 million bbl/d.
With any forecast, there are uncertainties that will result in global supply being higher or lower than expected. In January 2013, EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) projected that global liquid fuels supply growth would average 1.0 million bbl/d in 2013, but EIA's latest estimate shows that global supply grew by about 0.6 million bbl/d in 2013. The difference mainly reflects higher-than-expected unplanned supply disruptions among OPEC producers. Planned disruptions as a result of maintenance can also be unpredictable as complications can extend the maintenance period, reducing production by a greater amount than expected. This STEO supplement addresses the major uncertainties behind EIA's 2014-15 global supply outlook.