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International Energy Outlook 2014

Release Date: September 9, 2014   |  Next Release Date: September 2015   |  Report Number: DOE/EIA-0484(2014)

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Table 4. World liquid fuels production in the Reference case, 2010-40
million barrels per day
Source 2010 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Average annual
percent change
2010-40
OPEC
Crude and lease condensatea 32.0 34.4 36.1 39.5 42.9 46.2 1.2
Natural gas plant liquids 3.3 4.0 4.2 4.5 4.9 5.4 1.7
Biofuelsb 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 --
Coal-to-liquids 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 --
Gas-to-liquids 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 14.1
Kerogen 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 --
Refinery gain 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.9
Total OPEC 35.4 38.7 40.7 44.4 48.2 52.1 1.3
Non-OPECc
Crude and lease condensatea 42.9 48.3 49.4 50.4 51.4 52.9 0.7
Natural gas plant liquids 5.1 5.9 6.4 6.7 7.1 7.3 1.2
Biofuelsb 1.3 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.7 3.0 2.7
Coal-to-liquids 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.1 6.2
Gas-to-liquids 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 3.9
Kerogen 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6
Refinery gain 2.3 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 0.8
Total Non-OPEC 51.9 58.9 61.1 63.1 64.9 67.2 0.9
World
Crude and lease condensatea 74.9 87.7 85.5 89.9 94.3 99.1 0.9
Natural gas plant liquids 8.4 9.9 10.6 11.2 11.9 12.7 1.4
Biofuelsb 1.3 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.7 3.0 2.7
Coal-to-liquids 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.1 6.2
Gas-to-liquids 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 7.6
Kerogen 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6
Refinery gain 2.3 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 0.8
Total World 87.2 97.6 101.8 107.4 113.1 119.4 1.1
aCrude and lease condensate includes tight oil, shale oil, extra-heavy oil, and bitumen.
bEthanol volumes are reported on a gasoline-equivalent basis.
cIncludes some U.S. petroleum product stock withdrawals, domestic sources of blending components, other hydrocarbons, and ethers.
Sources: History: EIA, International Energy Statistics database (as of November 2013), www.eia.gov/ies. Projections: EIA, World Energy Projection System Plus (2014), run 2014.03.21_100505.