Report#: DOE/EIA-0484(98)

Contacts
Preface
Highlights
World Energy Consumption
The World Oil Market (Errata as of May 13, 1998)
Natural Gas
Coal
Nuclear Power
Hydroelectric and Other Renewable Energy
Electricity
Appendix A-World Energy Consumption, Oil Production, and Carbon Emissions Tables (PDF)
Click Here For the HTML Version of Appendix A, Tables A1-A13
Click Here For the HTML Version of Appendix A, Tables A14-A26
Click Here For the HTML Version of Appendix A, Tables A27-A39
Click Here For the HTML Version of Appendix A, Tables A40-A50
Appendix B-World Energy Projection System
Appendix C-A Status Report on Developing Transportation for Caspian Basin Oil and Gas Production

Preface

The Energy Information Administration’s outlook for world energy trends is presented in this report. Model projections now extending to the year 2020 are reported, and regional trends are discussed.

The International Energy Outlook 1998 (IEO98) presents an assessment by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the Outlook for international energy markets through 2020. The report is an extension of the EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98), which was prepared using the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). U.S. projections appearing in IEO98 are consistent with those published in AEO98. IEO98 is provided as a statistical service to energy managers and analysts, both in government and in the private sector. The projections are used by international agencies, Federal and State governments, trade associations, and other planners and decisionmakers. They are published pursuant to the Department of Energy Organization Act of 1977 (Public Law 95-91), Section 205(c). The IEO98 projections are based on U.S. and foreign government policies in effect on October 1, 1997.

Projections in IEO98 are displayed according to six basic country groupings (Figure 1). The industrialized region includes projections for four individual countries—the United States, Canada, Mexico, and Japan—along with the subgroups Western Europe and Australasia (defined as Australia, New Zealand, and the U.S. Territories). The developing countries are represented by four separate regional subgroups: developing Asia, Africa, Middle East, and Central and South America. China and India are represented in developing Asia. New to this year’s report, country-level projections are provided for Brazil—which is represented in Central and South America. Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union (EE/FSU) are considered as a separate country grouping.

The report begins with a review of world trends in energy demand. The historical time frame starts with data from 1970 and extends to 1996, providing readers with a 26-year historical view of energy demand. For the first time, IEO98 projections are extended to 2020, so that the forecasts cover a 24-year period.

High economic growth and low economic growth cases, based on different rates of growth in regional gross domestic product (GDP), are used to depict a set of alternative growth paths for the energy forecast. The projections and the uncertainty associated with making international energy projections in general are discussedin the first chapter of the report. The status of environmental issues, including global carbon emissions, is reviewed. Comparisons of the IEO98 projections with other available international energy forecasts are also included in the first chapter, along with a review of the performance of EIA's international energy projections from previous editions of the IEO.

The next part of the report is organized by energy source. Regional consumption projections for oil, natural gas, coal, nuclear power, and renewable energy (hydroelectricity, geothermal, wind, solar, and other renewables) are presented in five fuel chapters, with a review of the current status of each fuel on a worldwide basis. This IEO98 includes expanded coverage of the transportation sector. A discussion of energy use in the transportation sector—where EIA expects robust growth over the next 25 years—has been added to the chapter on world oil markets. The last chapter of the report contains a discussion of energy use for electricity production.

Summary tables of the IEO98 projections for world energy consumption, carbon emissions, oil production, and nuclear power generating capacity are provided in Appendix A. The reference case projections for total foreign energy consumption and for natural gas, coal, and renewable energy were prepared using EIA’s World Energy Projection System (WEPS) model, as were projections of carbon emissions, net electricity consumption, and energy use for electricity generation. Reference case projections of foreign oil production and consumption were prepared using the International Energy Module of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The NEMS Coal Export Submodule (CES) was used to derive flows in international coal trade. Nuclear consumption projections were derived from the International Nuclear Model, PC Version (PC-INM). Alternatively, nuclear capacity projections were developed by two methods: the nuclear reference case and low growth case projections were based on analysts’ knowledge of the nuclear programs in different countries; the high growth case was generated by the World Integrated Nuclear Evaluation System (WINES), a demand-driven model.

Figure 1. Map of the Six Basic Country Groupings

Source: Energy Information Administration, Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting.

The six basic country groupings used in this report (Figure 1) are defined as follows:

- Eastern Europe: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Serbia and Montenegro, Slovakia, and Slovenia.

- Former Soviet Union (FSU): The Baltic States of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, as well as Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan.

In addition, the following commonly used country groupings are referenced in this report:

The projections in IEO98 are not statements of what will happen, but what might happen given the specific assumptions and methodologies used. These projections provide an objective, policy-neutral reference case that can be used to analyze international energy markets. As a policy-neutral data and analysis organization, EIA does not propose, advocate, or speculate on future legislative and regulatory changes. The projections are based on current U.S. and foreign government policies. Assuming current policies, even knowing that changes will occur, will naturally result in projections that differ from the final data.

Models are abstractions of energy production and consumption activities, regulatory activities, and producer and consumer behavior. The forecasts are highly dependent on the data, analytical methodologies, model structures, and specific assumptions used in their development. Trends depicted in the analysis are indicative of tendencies in the real world rather than representations of specific real-world outcomes. Even where trends are stable and well understood, the projections are subject to uncertainty. Many events that shape energy markets are random and cannot be anticipated, and assumptions concerning future technology characteristics, demographics, and resource availability cannot be known with any degree of certainty.

TO:
Highlights

File last modified: February 2, 1999

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